Academy Libertex: Results 2021 and Forecasts 2022
Looking at the outgoing year, it is safe to say that it was a bullish year for most stock indices, raw materials, dollar and cryptocurrency. The year of white metal bull. We all needed steel nerves to survive volatility and inflation strike of this year. What carries 2022 years old and how they will behave different segments of the market read in our annual review results 2021 and forecasts 2022.
Looking at the outgoing year, it is safe to say that it was a bullry year for most stock Indexes, raw materials, dollar and cryptocurrency. The year of white metal bull. We all needed steel nerves to survive volatility and inflation strike of this year. But we were rewarded with new victories and achievements!
We have something to be proud of. In 2021, LIBERTEX Group of Companies received new awards: “Best Trading Platform” from Forex Report, “Best Forex Broker” from European CEO, as well as “The most reliable broker in Europe” from Ultimate Fintech. The terminal was replenished with new trading functionality, and customers received The ability to work on a new type of account – Libertex Portfolio, especially for investors who prefer traditional investment, without using a leverage.
The Libertex Academy also has what is proud of:
Investment ideas (product for customers with a deposit from $ 500, risk levels: medium) brought yield 134% from the beginning of 2021. The most profitable became the ideas of gold, American stock market and Bitcoin. Nobel investment portfolios (product for customers with a deposit from $ 5,000, risk levels: Low) brought yield 27.2% from the beginning of 2021. Oil, American and European indices became the most profitable positions. Premium Market Review (product for customers with a deposit from $ 50,000, risk level: low) brought yield 44% from the beginning of 2021. The most successful ideas on oil, the European stock market, American shares are most successful. In 2021, analysts of the Academy issued another study on cryptocurrencies “Cryptisresentation 3.0”, in which high accuracy indicated trends and price guidelines Bitcoin and other digital currencies, presented a unique material at cost and trade models of work with cryptocurrency.
Andrei Shevchishin, Head of the Department of Analysts of the Academy of Libertex
Currency
For 2021, the dollar felt quite confident. The dollar index was able to strengthen more than 4%. The growth of the US currency has demonstrated in relation to most of the main opponents. In periods of instability, the US currency is traditionally enjoyed by increased demand. In 2021. There were quite different shocks: care restrictions, new virus strains, growth of geopolitical tensions, defaults. And against the background of all this, investors tried to diversify their portfolios, translating part of the funds in the US dollar.
Among other things, the US Federal Reserve gave a signal on folding the quantitative incentive program. And it also benefits the dollar. Moreover, for example, the ECB still persistently refuses to watch the truth and take decisive measures in the fight against inflation, which Already more than 2 times exceeded 2% target level set by the regulator.
In addition, Europe was on the verge of the energy crisis, which also prevents the strengthening of the national currencies of the eurozone and the UK. Australian and New Zealand dollars are traditionally considered risky assets. It was for this reason that they weakened to the US dollar, even though the Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in 2021 had already moved to raising the rate.
Forecast for 2022 year
Among In 2022, the currencies will benefit the one where the balance will be found faster between the containment of inflation and the stability of the economy. It is no secret that in the past few years, the global economy exists against the background of constant stimulation. If now sharply stop the printed machine, the largest crisis will develop, which will be comparable to the “Great Depression”. Therefore, inflation is one of the few tools that can reduce debt burden.
and first of all US debt load. Gosdom is selected To the mark of 29 trillion dollars. And in the near future, Congress must decide to increase the ceiling of the public debt. Otherwise, the United States is waiting for an imminent recession. In the meantime, the dollar has every chance that he will remain one of the strongest currencies. At the end of the last meetings in 2021, the US Federal Reserve gave clearly to understand that the regulator is ready to proceed to raise the rate already in 2022.
Thus, the dynamics of the main currencies in relation to the dollar will be due to the differential of moods regarding the monetary politicians. In particular, the euro may remain a weak link. The fact is that the head of the ECB Christine Lagard has clearly made it clear that the European regulator is unlikely to wait for increasing interest rates in 2022. She noted that the tightening of monetary policy could now suffer the restoration of the economy. This means that the euro can demonstrate a further decline in the level of level 1.0910.
Unlike Euro, Pound, provided that the country can cope with the energy crisis and challenges COVID-19, is able to give a dollar worthy rebuff. The economy as a whole is restored, and the Bank of England is preparing to tighten the monetary policy, since it is concerned about the growing level of inflation (4.2% in annual terms). Thus, the GBP / USD pair can wait for movements in the range of 1.3300 – 1.4000. The dynamics of commodity currencies: Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars will largely be due to prices for raw materials. At the same time, if we assume that the Coronavirus situation stabilizes and the world will begin to gradually increase the business Activity (including in the tourism industry), this triple can show moderate recovery.
Irina Rogova, Senior Analyst of the Academy Libertex
Metals
2021 It was not the most successful for precious metals. Gold and silver spent a year in fairly wide ranges. Metals platinum group were under pressure, despite the attempts to develop a positive dynamics at the beginning of the year. Such heterogeneity of the dynamics lies in the very essence of the metals sector. On the one hand, precious Metals play the role of protective tools and are in high demand during instability periods. And in 2021 it was more than enough: Lokdaunas associated with coronavirus, uncertainty regarding the monetary policy of key central banks of the world, the risks of defaults of some large companies, political instability, deliveries of supply chains.
But the fact that the markets paid their attention to higher-ship assets, for example, stock indices that showed growth on the background of politics The liquidity infliction, conducted by the majority of central banks, has not allowed to show the precious metals a pronounced positive dynamics.
In addition, almost all metals are used in industry. And it is the fall in industrial demand that had a negative impact on them. In particular, about 90% of world demand for palladium falls on the automotive industry. And this industry felt not very positive in 2021. The production reduction has been recorded everywhere. In August 2021 Toyota Concern declared a 40% reduction in production. In the UK in October 2021, production rolled back to the level of 1956! The fall in comparison with the levels of 2020 amounted to 41%. It is expected that, according to the results of the whole year (data will appear only at the beginning of 2022), the production of world automakers in 2021 will decrease by 7 million units. All this led to the fall of Palladium for the year by 26.5%.
Forecast for 2022
It is worth noting that one of the key risk factors that can mix all the cards remains Coronavirus. He constantly mutters, new strains appear, in different regions, surgery of morbidity are recorded, which lead to the introduction of restrictions and negatively affect the state of economics.
For industrial metals 2022, it is unlikely to be more positive than 2021. The possible tightening of monetary policies by central banks can lead, at a minimum, to short-term cooling in the real sector. And this is a negative factor for industrial metals.
Platinum is not so widely used Now in the automotive, like palladium. And it adds negative expectations regarding demand for this metal. In 2022, a surplus of a proposal in the amount of 637 thousand ounces is expected to form a proposal for platinum. As a result, its quotes may decrease in the dry level of 754.8 support.
Palladium may feel more confident. It is expected that by the mid-2022, the situation in the automotive sector stabilizes. And it was during this period that the demand for this metal can accelerate. As a result, It is expected that the deficit for the year will be 200 – 300 thousand ounces. In addition, the metal is used in the production of new processors, and this is a large market. Do not forget that China and the United States have introduced hard standards for mining, smelting and the use of palladium raw materials due to the negative impact of this process on the environment. Thus, if the first half of the year is not the most optimistic with the likelihood of a decrease in quotations to a level of 1,500 dollars per ounce, then by the end of the year, palladium has chances to restore incurred Losses and return to the area of 2300 – 2,400 dollars. Gold and silver will feel even more confident. These metals are traditionally perceived by the market as protective. And it will be defended from what.
First, the stock market looks overbought. Not surprising. Since the beginning of the pandemic of the Central Bank of the world poured colossal liquidity. The Balance of the US Federal Reserve for 1.5 years fled $ 3.5 trillion and reached record marks significantly exceeded $ 8.5 trillion. As soon as the outflow of liquidity begins, and the Central Bank already talks about That it is time to turn the quantitative softening programs and many have already moved to this process, investors will start looking for assets that can be bought against the background of the fall of the stock market. Secondly, liquidity infusion along with the limitations associated with coronavirus, which violated the chain of supplying materials and components that increased the transportation time, led to an inflation jump. In the US, the consumer price index reached a maximum level for 30 years, rising to 6.2% in annual terms. Exceeded The target level established by the ECB, and the inflation rate in the eurozone, coming to 4.9%. Twice above Target Bank of England Inflation rate in the UK. At the same time, despite the assurances of the American regulator in the fact that high price pressure is temporary, there is reason to believe that this is not so inflation will delay for a long period of time, at a minimum, until the end of 2022. And the head of the Fed US made it clear that the new strain COVID-19 may adversely affect inflationary risks.
Growth Inflation will be supported by high energy prices, which, in turn, is provoked, among other things, the energy crisis in European countries. In addition, if you pay attention to the data on the food price index from the UN, then the trends are not observed by no optimistic. According to the latest data (for October 2021), the indicator turned out to be higher than the same period last year by 31.3%, reaching a maximum since July 2011.
Growing inflation may push the US FRC and other Central Bank to Early raising rates. However, in current quotations, gold has already been laid at least 2 rates in 2022. Therefore, even the beginning of the process of tightening monetary policy is unlikely to lead to a long fall of gold and silver quotations. In general, by the end of 2022, you can wait for XAU / USD at $ 2,000 per ounce, Xag / USD at 28.40.
Irina Rogova, Senior Analyst of the Academy of Libertex
Oil and Gas
Brent Oil Prices marked impressive growth in 2021. Contracts with the near term Expiration began at the level of 51 dollar per barrel, and reached about $ 80. The main cause of such a strengthen was the rapid growth of the global economy and improving forecasts on it. So, in 2021, forecasts for the growth rates of world GDP were mainly grew from 5.2% to 6.0%.
In addition, improving forecasts for the growth rate of the global economy proceeded against the background of more than twenty percentage of global oil production.
Reception factors 2022: The demand for oil in 2022 will continue to grow. Consensus forecast Economists in demand for black gold, which represents the Bloomberg news agency, is at a mark of + 4.4%. An additional growth factor will be a gas crisis. According to Citi and Goldman Sachs banks, ultra-high prices for natural gas can create an additional demand for oil in the amount of up to 1 million barrels per day. Proposal Factors 2022: At the same time, with an increase in demand, we will observe how it is very reluctant to return to the market an additional offer. If before the crisis, OPEC mining reached 34 million barrels During the day, as of November 2021, it was only 27.5 million and the point here is not only in OPEC. Do not rush to increase production in the United States. If the oil mining pandemic in the United States was 13 million barrels per day, then in November 2021 – only 11.1 million barrels.
Against this background, the formation of the US President’s rhetoric on the fact that they have many leverage on their hands to reduce prices, while the populist statement looks. In the current situation, it can be said that OPEC countries have finally reached the prices that allow them to balance their budgets. For this opportunity They will continue to fight with all their might. So, in response to the sale of 30 million barrels from strategic reserves, followed by the statement of OPEC + about the intention to reduce the rate of increasing production. It must be admitted that the sale of strategic reserves is a very dubious and ineffective measure, which is not enough that the time so also creates a deferred proposal for the future. After all, reserves will sooner or later have to fill. They are called strategic.
Forecast for 2022
According to IMF estimates, The price at which Budget Saudi Arabia is balanced, in 2022 will be about $ 70 per barrel. At 2021, this figure was $ 76 per barrel. We are convinced that Er-Riyadh and his allies will be able to achieve the average annual price it. For this, they have all the levers and buyers yet there is no possibility to oppose anything. However, the dominance of prices, of course, will continue. The depth of these oscillations easily reaches 20% in both directions. Accordingly, the price range for 2022 is seen as 66 – 84 dollars per barrel.
The closer to 66 dollars, the better the purchase investments, and the closer to 84-90 dollars, the more you can think about investments in the decline.
Amendment on COVID
The main factor capable of making changes to our estimates will be further mutations COVID-19. The virus will continue to change. It always happens with viruses, even with flu. There will be concerns about the ineffectiveness of the vaccine. The main thing in this information flow is whether social distance measures will be introduced. If so, then the forecasts will lose relevance.
Gas crisis 2022
in 2021 Europe covered a gas crisis unprecedented scale. Moreover, the crisis itself was so unexpected that he gave rise to a number of claims to the key European supplier – Russia. In 2021, Gazprom fulfilled its obligations for gas supplies to Europe. However, did this at the expense of reserves accumulated in Germany in Germany and Europe, Rehden, belonging to him. Therefore, by the end of 2021 it turned out to be filled in total five%. Naturally, such a fall in reserves in front of the winter is almost a catastrophe. We will not go into reflections intending it out or not. However, we note that a full-fledged energy crisis is a huge blow to Russia’s reputation as a reliable gas supplier to Europe, with subsequent reorientation of Europe, even on more expensive gas from other regions, in particular, liquefied natural gas. To allow this in Moscow to afford can not, and therefore we are convinced that Gazprom will have to increase supply and in 2022 The year that stabilizes the situation and we are waiting for a deep rollback of gas prices down.
Most likely, January – February 2022 will be the beginning of the price drop in prices, when the seasonal drop in the prices of blue fuel is traditionally marked.
Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst of the Academy Libertex
Stock Indices
This year was quite successful for those who chose the stock market for their investments. At the beginning of December, in most countries of the world, the rapid growth of stock indices from the beginning of the year is recorded. Among the leaders of the US indices, countries of Europe and Asia, among the outsiders – China.
As the main reasons for such rapid growth, we can note the following:
Soft monetary policy of central banks, especially the USA and the EU. When money is a “cheap” resource, it stimulates both business and the consumer; Stimuli programs. Many countries have allocated huge funds to stimulate the economy and deal with the consequences of COVID-19. In particular, the United States allocated more than $ 4 trillion. on these programs; recovery labor market. After mass vaccination, the business began to restore the strength and recruit the new personnel, which stimulated the growth of the economy; Growth of commodities. It supported most countries with commodity economies; inflation. A sharp jump in inflation in 2021 sent capital from assets with a fixed profitability in the shares of companies that were a kind of insurance against increasing inflation.
Forecast for 2022 year
Many skeptics believe that the stock market is already at the maxima and he has no more grow. So thought in the near 2019, when the S & P 500 index rose by 31.5% in just a year, but since then he almost doubled. And all because alternatives capable of giving such a yield as the stock market and at the same time, which do not have such volatility, as cryptocurrencies, not so much. Money should always work, especially when they cost cheap, as now. Therefore, while the central banks do not completely cease the incentives and do not switch to increasing interest rates, stock markets will have fuel for further Growth. According to our estimates, the potential for growth will be maintained at least until mid-2022.
Basic growth drivers in 2022
So what can contribute to further growth?
Saving low interest rates. While the rates will not start rise, the business has access to cheap loans, which will give companies maximum profits. According to forecasts, the US next year will keep a bet on a low level, and the EU will not at all begin to raise them. Profit growth companies. One of the main problems Which companies were noted this year in their quarterly reports, these are failures with deliveries due to the rupture of commodity chains, and is especially pronounced by the lack of chips, the demand for which increased greatly. This caused stagnation in production and inflation processes. Fortunately, this is temporary phenomenon that, according to forecasts, should decide in 2022. Thus, companies will earn more, which will affect the growth of stock quotes and stock indexes. Improving the situation with a pandemic. Vaccination of the population returned many For their jobs, but labor restrictions in many countries still remained. Nevertheless, the situation will gradually improve. The positive of this story add new drugs from COVID-19, which will very soon begin to enter medical institutions. This will improve the labor and business climate and create new growth prospects.
What sectors should pay attention to 2022?
This year was successful for many sectors of the economy. The technology and energy sector was in favorites against the background of digital transformation Business and energy growth, on the example of the US economy. To determine which sectors will be favorites in 2022, it is worth assessing them for fundamental criteria: revenue and profits of companies in the industry. A good indicator of the fundamental force is the profitability of own capital (ROE), which measures how effectively the company in the sector generate profits compared with its own capital.
The technological sector has the highest forecast profitability of its own Capital among all sectors (blue histogram) and revising on improving the expected profit per share (Red line) next year also one of the strongest among all sectors, according to Bloomberg and Charles Schwab for 2022.
According to this forecasts, in 2022 it is worth paying attention to the energy, financial sector, the material sector and the health sector.
On which indexes should pay attention in 2022.
The main beneficiaries of growth next year can be the stock Indices of the United States, Europe and a number of commodity countries. The main growth of the US indices will be on the first half of the year until the Fed fails to completely stop the bond redemption program, which will stimulate markets.
Europe, in the case of permission of the energy crisis and improving the situation with a pandemic, also has chances to close the year in the positive zone.
Interest rates there will be for long for a long time, and the stimulus program has not yet begun to turn. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the indices of the main European countries. According to different estimates, high prices for raw materials and energy resources will be saved in 2022, which will support the economy and stock market of commodities, where the dynamics of prices for raw materials will be reflected in the value of indexes.
summarizing the above, it can be concluded that 2022 is unlikely to become a year of the bear market in the global stock market. At a minimum, until June, we will also observe growth and even new maxima on the S & P 500 index. In one wave with our conclusions, many predictions are also Invest banks. However, in the second half of the year, a small correction may follow. But at the same time quotes will be in a balanced state until the end of the year.
However, forecasts also testify to the potential slowdown in the global economy. Therefore, it is important to monitor possible risks, such as the energy crisis, pandemic and inflation. To reduce potential risks, it is worth choosing the companies and sectors that have the most stable positions before these risks. They will be stronger Market.
Evgeny Turchin, Senior Analyst of the Academy Libertex
Cryptovaya
A few years ago, the possibility for a short period of time to increase your capital for hundreds, and even more so thousands and tens of thousands of percent seemed just fantastic. In the new reality, cryptocurrencies give such chances and this fact attracts an increasingly wide range of participants.
Rally on the cryptocurrency market smoothly moved out of 2020 at the beginning of 2021, thereby creating a positive burned for the whole year. IN In 2021, we all witnessed sometimes incredible volatility. But his cryptocurrency world completes mainly on a positive note. It is worth noting that those who risked participate in this growth have already received a tangible profit, and some of our customers thanks to Crypt even become dollar millionaires!
If we speak in general about the dynamics of 2021, the benchmark, certainly, remained Bitcoin, who since the beginning of the year almost doubled its value. But the first ten cryptocurrency for the year has undergone significant Changes. Confidently entrenched in the Solana and Cardano top, as the “killers” Ethereum, but the most bright, in our opinion, an event, turned out to appear in the leaders on the capitalization of the “membrane” cryptocurrency dogecoin and shiba. Not without the participation of the activity of Ilona Mask “Doggy” cryptocurrency broke into the life of every crypto trader and turned out to be the newsmakers of 2021.
Summing up the results of 2021, I would like to recall those key events that have occurred during this period and influenced the market dynamics. Not full of their list:
Historical Price maxima banning mining in China Maximization of the share of institutional participants in Kripte “Mematic” coins dogecoin and shiba court proceedings with Ripple first approved sec, futures ETF on Bitcoin output to the IPO of the largest cryptobse coinbase update London in Ethereum NFT tokens and geyming-mania adding crypts in PayPal recognition of Bitcoin by means of payment at the state level (Salvador).
These are only the main milestones of crypto industry in the yielding 2021. It is difficult to even imagine what Wait from 2022, but we still try to submit your forecast.
Forecast for 2022
Bitcoin will join in the second year after the 3rd Halving, which occurred in the 2020th. If you compare this period with previous halvings, it can be noted that previously the cost of Bitcoin reached historical maxima, but after that there was a powerful correction. This pattern can work in the current phase of halving, that is, in 2022 we will see both new peaks and deep correction.
as repeatedly Noted, the time of cheap money in 2022 will continue. World Central Bank does not rush to raise accounting rates, especially against the background of new, more infectious, Kovida strains. The Risk ON phase until the middle of the year is likely to continue, and the cryptocurrencies will reap the fruits, updating price maxima.
Global inflation with high probability will continue to grow and in 2022. Prices for goods and services are rapidly moving upwards, and together with them and the crypton, which is traditionally a shelter from the depreciation of fiatite currencies. IN First of all, the currency of emerging markets will be under the blow. Here you can give an example of the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, which provoked both riots in the country and a sharp splash of purchases cryptocurrencies by the population.
Geopolitical risks, as one of the key factors, will be present on the agenda throughout the year. The increase in tensions in the “hot” points can lead to an increase in demand for cryptocurrency as a protective asset. The world cryptocosm community has already come true with the fact Maine’s prohibition in China and most miners either closed, or transferred their capacity to other locations, such as USA, Kazakhstan, Canada and Russia. Thus, next year, the mining process itself will occur fairly stable. An important condition for this stability should be sustainable electricity prices, and this may not happen in 2022. The multiple increase in energy prices, in particular gas and coal, is no longer the chance of the previous level of electricity prices. Therefore, the cost The mining will increase, and this, in turn, can provoke the closure of small mining farms and a decrease in Bitcoin’s offer on the market. As a result, the rise in crypt prices.
Evaluation For 2022,
The forecasts of industry experts fluctuate in a wide range, from $ 10,000 to $ 1,000,000 for Bitcoin at the end of 2022, but the majority leans to the levels of $ 120,000 – $ 150,000 for a coin. Against the background of global inflation, these marks the price can reach in the first half of the year, in the second – it is possible to start deep correction, due to Start of the campaign to raise the US Fed.
Fall Crypt is likely to not be so dramatic as before. We believe that, subject to the increase in electricity prices by 2 times, the cost of mining will also double. This value will be approximately $ 45,000- $ 55,000 for prey 1 BTC and below these levels, the price is hardly dropped.
The cryptocurrency market matures and it is already clear that institutional investors are resolutely configured to continue their expansion. They will try to increase the share of their participation, Flowing the market “smart” liquidity. According to the current estimates, the share of institutional players is about 10%. This is, of course, a little. As you know, big money does not like volatility and we assume that the gradual increase in the share of large investors will smooth out sharp market movements and reduce the amplitude of oscillations. Probably, in Bitcoin prices, we will no longer see a multiple impulse growth, no instant extreme fall.
Evgeny Shakutko, Senior Analyst of the Academy Libertex
2022 Total expectations
2022 year. Immediately three twos in the figure of the year. Very rare combination. Think, over the past two thousand years, this happened only 2 times – in 222 and in 1222. And for the third time three twins gathered together. Numerologists say that the deuce is the “axis of symmetry”, the point of equilibrium. Any violation of this state is perceived as a direct threat to well-being, which makes act to restore order and harmony.
World Economy and Financial Markets Over the past decades A lot of imbalances have accumulated, which only intensified under the influence of COVID-19. It’s time to restore the order and bring the financial system into balance. On the agenda, we have high inflation (in the US maximum for 30 years), broken commodity chains accumulated during the period of zero rates of highest debts overheated by the stock markets, new strains of the virus. We believe that 2022 is just a year of bringing the situation to the normal state and restoration of the balance.
Since 2009, markets are practically Constantly under the influence of stimulating central banks and infidelines of capital. How to work outside the paradigm of monetary stimulation and how not to enjoy the restoration of the economy, while holding back inflation, central banks, alas, do not know. As a result, they are forced to keep the economy and markets on a monetary needle and wait for the stabilization of prices. If prices do not work, it will only have to tighten credit and monetary policy.
However, high inflation plays the central banks on the hand. After all, in this world is not so much Options for a decrease in debt load and sterilizing money: This is a war, default and inflation. In this case, inflation compared to the two first options looks harmless. In any case, 2022 will be the year of fighting inflation and its close attention. In the second half of the spring, markets will revise inflationary expectations and, if there are no slowdowns, the signal to the correction will receive. If a new wave of Lokdaunov happens, world inflation is for a short time to recession. But later it will develop in the next tsunami, since New restrictions are new failures in supply chains. Therefore, in the long run, the concerns of world inflation are only enhanced.
2022 will be the year of growth of the number of defaults, which will inevitably follow crisis caps, high energy prices, inflation surge and tightening of credit and monetary policy. Against this background, high-quality borrowers acquire greater value.
The world will follow China whose economy after many years of boom will slow down Due to the reduction of consumer spending, increasing competition, changes in antitrust laws.
Natural cataclysms and global warming are no longer the first year on the agenda. In 2022, we are waiting for clearer practical steps of world governments towards the struggle for high environmental standards. Moreover, the rise in energy prices will spur the process of active transition to green technologies. And 2022 this year is a year of a black water tiger. An unexpected combination is not true? But, they say that this animal personifies justice and wisdom, as well as courage and quick temper. It looks like volatility we can not avoid. If you do not know where to start, what to choose and what is the market situation, you can always use any product of the Libertex Academy: watch the Morning Liebertexshow, read the weekly digest, familiarize yourself with investment ideas or start trading in the framework of the proposed trading systems or long-term investment Briefcases.
