Basic analysis of the oil market
The oil market has healed in a new life – WTI prices have returned above february’s 2020 highs. So the market is already at a pre-sighted level. There are enough reasons for optimism, although I still do not rule out the emergence of a sufficiently strong corrective decline over the next few weeks. He had previously said that Saudi Arabia had started reducing oil production by 1 million barrels per day since February 1. This decision has been known for a long time, but the main market reaction was revealed on the first trading day of this week.
It will also draw attention to the OPEC forecast, which says that the oil market will remain in deficit in 2021. Of course, this forecast takes into account the fact that all OPEC members will adhere to quotas for black gold production. Therefore, the existence of a deficit for such a long time will contribute to the reduction of oil reserves in oil storage facilities. This rapid increase in reserves has put record pressure on oil prices in 2020. Therefore, even a slow but steady reduction will contribute to a further increase in the price of black gold.
The first true confirmation of this forecast was seen in a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which noted a decline in inventories. So today it is very important to pay attention to the report of the US Department of Energy, because the API data is not official and rarely very different from the data of the Ministry of Energy. Therefore, exceeding the projected rate of decline in reserves in the United States may provide additional support for oil prices. Another important factor remains the Fed’s monetary policy and the US government’s willingness to provide financial assistance to the population and businesses. As a result, we are seeing an increase in the stock market and relatively good data on the economic activity and purchasing power that supports the oil market.
Return of quotes to a technically strong support level of $53.80, which has long served as resistance, not only cancels the bullish scenario, but also activates the bears. The nearest buyer targets are $57.30 and $59.60. To implement this scenario, you need an additional growth factor.