Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
The quotations of the euro-dollar pair were practically unchanged at the results of the trading session of Tuesday and reached the resistance level of 1.1500 at the end of the day.
During trading, the pair's rate decreased to a new local minimum of 1.1432, but the price recovered quite quickly. Germany's overall trade balance has grown by almost two billion euros compared to forecasts. The growth of the indicator was recorded, first of all, due to the fact that the fall in imports exceeded the decline in exports. The decline in sales in the automotive sector caused a decline in total exports in Germany. The UK's exit from the European Union without a trade agreement, as well as further increases in duties, could in the future lead to a serious increase in prices and a change in trade relations with other countries.
One of the main factors of pressure on the quotations of the European currency remains the situation around Italy. The new government plans to increase public spending by widening the budget deficit, which is contrary to EU norms. Italian bond yields are now at their highest levels in recent years, which has a negative impact on the European stock market. As long as this issue remains unresolved, the quotations of the pair will continue to trade below the level of 1.1500.
In our forecast for Wednesday we expect a further decline in the quotations of the euro-dollar pair to the support levels of 1.1475, 1.1450 and 1.1420.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The quotes of the pound-dollar pair rose sharply yesterday and reached the level of 1.3145 by the end of the trading session.
The news background on Brexit on Tuesday again shifted towards optimism. Ireland's foreign minister said there was a high probability of a Brexit deal at the moment and there could be certainty over the next six weeks. His colleague was supported by the British Minister for Brexit Dominic Raab, who noted that negotiations with the European Union have become more intensive, but there are still some differences. Raab said the UK would not sign a treaty with vague customs prospects and was prepared to consider alternative scenarios.
Retail sales by the British Retail Consortium fell 0.2% in September compared to the previous period. The slowdown in the retail sector is linked to the protracted Brexit negotiations and has a negative impact on overall growth in the British economy. Today, data on the UK's economic growth for August will be published, according to preliminary forecasts the growth of the indicator may fall to the level of 0.1%, which will be the worst result since 2013. If the data does fall, the pound/dollar pair will fall again below the support level of 1.3100.
In our forecast for today we expect a decrease in the quotations of the pound/dollar to the support levels of 1.3120, 1.3100 and 1.3070.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold prices were little changed at the end of Tuesday's trading session and ended trading at $1,189 per troy ounce.
Apparently, the price of gold has found strong support at the level of 1190, at least the quotes can not overcome it, even despite the strong dollar and the growing yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. Pressure on the quotes is exerted by a strong US currency and expectations of an interest rate increase at the December meeting of the Fed. In the long term, gold is likely to grow, as the strengthening of the U.S. economy will be limited, and a significant slowdown is expected in 2020. Long-term forecasts for this period imply the growth of the asset to resistance levels of 1300 and 1400 dollars. However, in the short term, quotes may fall below the local support level at $1,162 per ounce.
Exports of gold from the United States continued to grow in the first half of 2018. Most of the gold was sent to Switzerland and the UK. From January 2018 net gold imports to the United States amounted to 167 tons, which is 2% more than the same period in 2017, and net exports for this period amounted to 292 tons of metal.
In our forecast for today's trading we expect a slight increase in gold quotations to resistance levels of 1192, 1195 and 1198 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil rose slightly on Tuesday and reached $74.80 per barrel by the end of trading.
Russia and Saudi Arabia continue to increase production, using the opportunity against the background of reduced supplies from Iran. Russia in September increased oil production to 11.35 million barrels per day and restored the quota for reduction. At the same time, if necessary, Russia can increase production by another 200,000-300,000 barrels per day. The current production level is already 100,000 barrels per day higher than in October 2016, when it was 11.247 million barrels. It was from this level that Russia began the reduction within the framework of the OPEC agreement. Since July this year, the countries of the agreement have received OPEC approval to restore production to compensate for the shortage of supply in the market. Thus, Russia not only fully restored the level of production, but also exceeded the maximum value reached before the deal. Saudi Arabia increased production by 700,000 barrels per day to 10.7 million barrels, with the previous reduction amounting to 486,000 barrels. Despite the fears of the markets about the sharp decline in oil exports from Iran, it is clear that there will be those willing to compensate for this loss by increasing their own capacity. Thus, the current strengthening of oil prices is not only related to Iranian sanctions, but also to production problems in other countries, including Venezuela, Angola and others.
In our forecast for Wednesday we expect a further slight increase in WTI crude oil quotations to resistance levels of 75.00, 75.25 and 75.50 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Cryptocurrency market continues to be in the flat, most assets are traded with little volatility. Bitcoin quotes were trading around 6650, ethereum fell to 225, and XRP maintained its position near the level of 0.48 dollars.
The Swiss Financial Markets Supervision Service has issued the first license of a company engaged in professional management of crypto assets – Crypto Fund, founded in 2017. The new license will allow the company to legally offer a wide range of collective investment products, in particular bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets, including its own funds. The granting of a license to a cryptocurrency fund shows that digital assets are getting closer to traditional ones. The license also allows the company to provide advisory services to institutional clients – that is, it will now have the same rights as traditional Swiss asset management funds. Earlier, the regulator issued a license of the first cryptocurrency company – Moving Media GmbH. Switzerland is becoming increasingly active in regulating the thriving cryptocurrency space.
Ripple will present its main product RippleNet at one of the most important events in the financial technology industry – Swift Sibos. Investors assume an increase in the price of the XRP token in this regard. Back in 2016 Ripple tried to get to this exhibition, but only this year the company was able to get the status of a participant. At the same time, Ripple will be at the same exhibition with its main competitor – SWIFT.
In our forecast for today we expect a slight increase in bitcoin quotes to the resistance levels of 6700, 6760 and 6800, the strengthening of the ethereum to the levels of 230, 235 and 240, as well as a slight decrease in XRP to the levels of 0.4750, 0.4600 and 0.4500 dollars.