Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
The quotations of the euro-dollar pair rose sharply during Thursday's trading session and reached the resistance level of 1.1775.
The U.S. currency was falling yesterday against most competitors, although there were no special prerequisites for this. The Labor market in the United States once again demonstrated strength, the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits decreased again. Sales volume in the secondary market in the United States did not change in relation to the previous period, although a slight increase was expected, but, of course, this could not have caused such a fall in the dollar. Next week there will be a meeting of the Fed and with a high probability the U.S. regulator will raise the interest rate for the third time this year.
Despite strong forecasts of growth in the U.S. economy in the third quarter and until the end of the year, markets were ambivalent about Donald Trump's imposition of new sanctions against China by 200 billion dollars. Further response of China will not be long in coming and such sanctions certainly can not but affect the growth of the economy in a negative direction. The fear of market participants is, first of all, that the Fed can slow down the planned pace of rate increases and postpone the December increase until next year.
In our forecast for Friday we expect further growth of the euro-dollar quotations to the resistance levels of 1.1785, 1.1800 and 1.1825.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The quotations of the pound-dollar pair also rose significantly yesterday and reached the maximum level since July this year, at 1.3297, and then decreased to 1.3268.
The level of retail sales in the UK in August grew by 3.3%, which was lower than last month, but still exceeded preliminary forecasts. Overall, retail sales have recovered from a multi-year low reached last November and continue to strengthen, which may signal the start of the British economic recovery. Although it is still too early to talk about a full recovery, as the high uncertainty associated with Brexit still remains.
Yesterday it was reported that the head of the European Council Donald Tusk will convene an emergency EU summit on November 17-18, dedicated to negotiations on the UK's withdrawal from the community. The meeting is likely to be the last date for a possible Brexit deal. It will be the focus of negotiators on both sides.
Meanwhile, yesterday the EU summit in Salzburg was held, at which the main topic of discussion was the Brexit negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron said he expects new proposals from London on the single European market and the status of the Irish border by October. Macron, who is one of the zealous supporters of the deal, said the EU would never accept an agreement with Britain if it harmed the EU. The head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker went even further and announced that the European Commission is fully ready for the failure of the Brexit negotiations, although of course it is trying to avoid it. Volatility of the British currency will be high until the November EU summit.
In our forecast for today we expect further growth of the quotations of the pound/dollar to the resistance levels of 1.3280, 1.3300 and 1.3325.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold rose during Thursday's trading session and reached a resistance level of $1,207 per troy ounce.
Gold is trading above the key level of 1200 dollars per ounce for the eighth session in a row and continues the trend of further ascent. So far, the forecasts, which assumed a price increase, starting in September are justified. According to some forecasts, the quotes will reach the level of 1250 dollars per troy ounce. Markets suggest that the Federal Reserve may take a pause in the chain of interest rate hikes in December, which will lead to a decrease in the growth of the US dollar and strengthening of gold. The escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China supports gold quotes.
According to the World Gold Council, there is still a high demand for gold from the Central Banks, which at the moment own about 10% of the world's metal reserves. In the first half of this year, purchases of gold from the Central Banks increased by 10%, which was the maximum growth since 2015. 86% of purchases came to Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey, which increased their stock due to the desire to reduce dependence on American debt obligations.
In our forecast for today's trading we expect the price of gold to rise further to the levels of 1209, 1212 and 1215 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil prices decreased at the end of yesterday's trading and reached the level of 70.23 dollars per barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump once again spoke out against high oil prices, once again via Twitter calling on OPEC to reduce quotations. Trump has repeatedly accused the cartel of manipulating oil prices, claiming that OPEC is allegedly artificially overquoting the stock market. Remarkably, Trump's tweet prompted an almost immediate price reaction that immediately began to decline.
Despite yesterday's decline, the price of oil is still trading above the key level of $70.00 per barrel. Prices remain at a high level against the background of lower oil exports from Iran in the run-up to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on November 4. Iranian exports have already fallen significantly by 500,000 barrels per day and continue to fall. Meanwhile, other countries continue to search for alternatives to replace Iranian imports. India, a key importer of oil from Iran in September and October, intends to buy about 360,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day, up from 658,000 barrels in April-August. Indian companies are actively looking for additional sources of supply in order to reduce dependence on Iran as much as possible. The South Korean Ministry of Energy has also decided to switch to supplies from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
In our forecast for today we expect the resumption of the growth of WTI crude oil quotations to resistance levels of 70.45, 70.70 and 71.00 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Cryptocurrencies grew strongly in price during Thursday's trading session. Bitcoin quotes rose to $6,600 and ethereum reached $220.
The absolute leader of growth from the top cryptocurrencies was Ripple, which added almost 30% in price against the background of a number of positive news. Ripple's capitalization increased by almost $2 billion. Over the past week, the number of mentions of XRP and Ripple in the media has increased markedly. This was due to the announcement of the new cryptocurrency product xRapid, which is expected to enter the market in October. RippleNet payment system has recently become widespread in 40 countries around the world. This was made possible by the speed and transparency of the system. Forecasts for the second half of September on Ripple and other cryptocurrencies are quite favorable.
Another positive factor was the news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced the start of consideration of the application of VanEck and cryptocurrency startup SolidX for the creation of a stock investment fund, tied to the price of bitcoin. If approved, VanEck and SolidX will be able to create a Bitcoin ETF. Earlier, the SEC postponed the decision on the application for registration of Bitcoin ETF. It was reported that the Commission needed more time to discuss the approval of the first stock market product of its kind in the United States.
In our forecast for today we expect further growth of bitcoin quotes to resistance levels of 6650, 6700 and 6800 dollars, as well as growth of ethereum to the marks 225, 235 and 250 dollars.