Euro ready for maximum update

on Thursday, October 14, in the end of the day the euro went up to the US dollar by 0.03%, to 1.1597. At the beginning of the European session, the price rose to 1.1624 against the background of a decrease in the yield of 10-year bonds and the total weakening of the US dollar. Gold for the first time since mid-September touched $ 1800. The positions of the euro ran after the statements of Christine Lagard and the fall of the Euro / pound cross pair. She stated that the Bank continues to believe that the growth of inflation is largely due to temporary factors. Price pressure can be sustainable if problems with deliveries lasting longer or wages rising more than currently expected.

After the release of American statistics, the correction on the dollar continued. The euro returned to 1.1584.

The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits last week decreased by 36 thousand, to 293 thousand people, the minimum since the pandemic began COVID-19 in March 2020. US producer prices (PPI index) jumped 8.6% in September from the same month a year earlier (forecast was 8.7%). Prices have reached the highest rate of growth since the beginning of the calculation of the indicator (November 2010).

Planned Statistics (GMT 3)

At 12:00 pm, a report will be released in the eurozone with data on the trade balance for August. At 3:30 pm, the US will release a retail volume report for September, as well as a manufacturing activity index from NY FRB for October. At 17:00, the US will present the Consumer Mood Index from the University of Michigan for October. At 20:00 Baker Hughes will report quantity data active oil drilling rigs.

The current situation

Morning is reminiscent of yesterday. The main currencies are traded in plus, except for the yen. New Zealander and Canadian occupy the first two lines. Patrick Harker, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, could raise demand for risk assets. He said he does not expect a rate increase until the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023. In his opinion, in 2021 inflation will be 4%, and next year it will fall to “a little more” 2%. Growth GDP expects about 5.5% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. Harker also advocates reducing the QE program, as well as his colleagues.

Now the attention of traders has shifted to the publication of monthly retail sales data in the United States, the consumer mood index from the University of Michigan and the dynamics of US bonds.

Technical analysis

In Asia, the euro recovered to 1.1606. Euro/pound cross is still on the side of buyers, so there is a possibility of a level test from the European session 1.1635 (90 gr). The main statistics on the United States came out. Now, as part of the correction movement, you can go to 1.17 until the next FOMC meeting.

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