European currency continues to decline: Forecast for October 26 – Forex
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
At the beginning of trading on Thursday, the euro dollar pair set the price higher and reached the mark of 1.1430, followed by a sharp collapse of quotations to 1.1360, followed by a recovery to 1.1375 at the end of trading. Such a rapid pullback of the euro back can be explained by the news of the suspension of Brexit negotiations and the speech of Mario Draghi.
On Thursday, the data on the interest rate of the European Central Bank became known, as expected, the ECB did not change it. The deposit rate remained the same. Following the ECB meeting, the press conference was given by its head Mario Draghi. According to him, the ECB intends to complete the asset buyback program by December 2018, and the risks of economic growth within the Eurozone are well balanced, despite the reporting figures released on Wednesday.
Draghi emphasized that the ECB will continue stimulating monetary policy to control inflation, which should not exceed 2%. He is also confident that Italy and the European Commission will come to a compromise on the budget issue. Draghi's press conference had a negative impact on investor sentiment, as the head of the ECB as a whole did not speak in support of Italy. The euro was not supported by the growth of European stock markets, which changed the rate of decline, taken by them since Monday.
Another factor of pressure on the euro were the indicators of economic expectations from IFO in Germany, released on Thursday, all of them were below the forecast values. The United States showed poor performance in the volume of orders for long-term goods and the balance of foreign trade, but, taking into account all other factors, this did not have a negative impact on the dollar.
Today, a review on macroeconomic indicators in the Eurozone, prepared by the ECB, is expected to be released, which is able to orient investors in the conditions of market uncertainty.
To start today's trading will be characterized by a moderate uptrend for the euro dollar pair, which is corrective, which will be replaced by a downward dynamics. Support levels are at 1.1340, 1.1325 and 1.1300.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
At Thursday's trading, the pound followed the same exchange rate dynamics as the euro for the second day. The pound/dollar pair started the day with a steady rise to 1.2905, followed by a sharp pullback to 1.2815, at the same time as the collapse of the euro. By the time the trading session ended, the quotes managed to strengthen at 1.2825.
The pound fell on the news of the suspension of Brexit negotiations. A meeting of the British Cabinet was held on Thursday to discuss the Irish border. A majority of ministers opposed the UK being tied to a customs union with the EU, but it was not possible to find a reasonable answer to the question of how to avoid checks at the Irish border. This suggests that the ratification of any agreement on this issue in the British Parliament will be met with rejection of MPs.
The U.S. stock market rose on Thursday, thus providing additional support to the dollar along with Brexit. However, the publication of the reports of Amazon and Alphabet, so expected by investors and occurred after the market closed on Thursday, will affect Friday's trading. For example, at the end of the third quarter, Amazon showed excellent performance in terms of revenue, however, in terms of profit, the results were lower than expected. Another U.S. giant, Alphabet, had a profit of $33.7 billion, while analysts expected 34.04 billion.
In our forecast for Friday we assume the continuation of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair against the background of negative news on Brexit and the expected growth of US GDP for the third quarter of this year. Support levels will be at 1.2800, 1.2785 and 1.2760.
Forex. Gold price forecast
At the beginning of the trading session on Thursday, gold quotes showed growth to the resistance level of 1240 dollars per troy ounce, and then fell to the level of 1234 dollars, which was equivalent to the price of gold in trading on Wednesday.
The decline in the gold exchange rate is due to the strengthening of the dollar index, which occurred against the background of the fall of the pound and the euro, and the growth of Us stock indices on Thursday. However, a number of factors at the moment is support for gold even against the background of a strong dollar.
The increased correctional falls of American stock markets in the long term positively affect the exchange rate of gold as a traditionally stable asset. Investors are extremely wary because of the likelihood of a trade war between the U.S. and China and the U.S. congressional elections, tend to start selling shares at the slightest threat, and gold remains a traditional safe asset.
The congressional elections are a significant driver for the golden rally, as the dominant Republican Party is possible to change to the Democratic party, which will create difficulties for U.S. President Donald Trump and promote political instability in the United States.
The interest rate hike announced by the Federal Reserve was again criticized by Trump this Wednesday as slowing economic growth and the recovery of the U.S. stock market, which also contributes to higher precious prices. Metal.
In Friday's trading, we expect a moderate increase in gold quotes, as in the short term there remains a high interest of investors in higher-risk assets, with resistance levels of 1236, 1238 and 1240 dollars per troy ounce of metal.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
On Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil showed a correctional increase to $67 per barrel at the end of trading.
In particular, the growth of oil quotes has pulled the growth of world stock markets, in particular, European and American, which are usually in direct dependence, as the growth of exchanges means the interest of traders to high-risk assets.
Another factor in the increase in oil demand is the decline in oil exports from Iraq by 0.6% at the end of September, and Iranian sanctions, after which traders expect a shortage of raw materials in the global market. The possibility of a shortage of oil scares investors so much that even Saudi Arabia's intentions to increase oil production began to put less pressure on the oil prices.
Contrary to expectations, after the publication on Wednesday of data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, according to which commercial reserves of U.S. oil for the week of October 15-19 increased by 6.35 million barrels, the cost of oil did not decreased as reserves of gasoline and other distillate categories fell during the same time period.
On Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced that the member states would implement an agreement to reduce oil production by 111% in September 2018. The growth in oil inventories seen in recent weeks has caused OPEC concern, despite the fact that overall supply and demand in the market are now balanced.
Against the background of OPEC reports and other news, on Friday we can expect a continuation of the decline in oil quotations, possible support levels will be 66.75, 66.50 and 66.30 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Thursday, the cryptocurrency market was still in a state of quiet trading. Bitcoin fell by an average of $50 compared to Wednesday and was trading at $6,550. As expected, Ethereum continued the downtrend, falling to $203 at the beginning of trading, and by the end of the day having recovered to $205. By Thursday evening, ripple was in the lead, breaking through the resistance level of $0.4700, followed by a pullback to $0.4680.
The growth of Ripple can be explained by the large-scale integration of cryptocurrency into existing services and the active promotion of RippleNET, although many analysts are inclined to the speculative component.
Interesting are the current trading strategies for Bitcoin, which in the coming days will determine its movement. Despite the global drop in stock indices, which has been taking place since the beginning of this week, Bitcoin demonstrates very low volatility, and the dynamics of its rate is not in sync with the dynamics of the stock markets. This indicates that Bitcoin is gradually beginning to lose its close correlation with the traditional financial sector, and investors are no longer considering it as a risky asset that needs to be sold in the face of instability stock market. According to recently published data from CBOE Global Markets, Bitcoin is currently less mobile than shares of Netflix or Amazon. Many analysts say that the current low volatility of Bitcoin is an indicator that the market has reached the much-anticipated bottom traders, followed by an uptrend. The market only needs a catalyst for a global reversal.
On Thursday, there were rumors that the Bakkt platform, which will be trading bitcoin futures under the auspices of intercontinental Exchange, could be accredited by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as early as next week, that can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin rate. The possibility of cooperation with Bakkt is considered by major institutional investors, in particular, Goldman Sachs.
Friday's trades are likely to take place in the side range typical for the whole week. Given the news agenda and market expectations as a whole, Bitcoin can strengthen and test resistance levels of 6600, 6650, and 6700 dollars. Ethereum will continue to move down with recovery attempts, support levels will be located at 198, 194 and 190 dollars. Ripple can repeat the pattern of the previous two days, with a upward correction in early trading and a final drop, and support levels of 0.4660, 0.4638 and $0.4600 can be tested.