Experts estimate the threat of recession in Germany at 59.4%

Two more economic institutions have announced the current threat of recession in Germany. Research by the German institute IMK indicated an increase in the threat to 59.4% from 43% noted in the August report, reports Deutsche Welle. Experts of the institute noted that the latest indicator of the threat level is the highest since the winter of 2012-2013. This is due to a number of factors, such as a reduction in output and orders in the manufacturing industry, a decrease in the number of vacancies in the German labour market, and a weakening of business optimism against the backdrop of a likely Brexit without a deal and ongoing trade wars. Researchers at the German IFO Institute believe that weakness in German industry has had a negative impact on other industries, and unemployment has been rising for four months. According to their forecast, the German economy will contract by 0.1% in the third quarter after the same decline in the previous quarter, which will mean a technical recession. Earlier, analysts at the Institute of Economics in Kiel said they expected a recession in the German economy from August to September. They forecast a 0.3 percent decline in the economy in the third quarter.