Fixed ruble exchange rate?

departure from the floating course of national currency can only harm – the country’s trade advantages are reduced, and the economy ceases to respond to global trends. But, judging by the dynamics of the foreign exchange rate of the last weeks, the hard corridor is nevertheless formed. How long?

American sites swept a wave of optimism against the background of slowing inflation from a half -century maximum. Investors regarded a reduction in price pressure as a signal for the Central Bank to loosen the grip. Enthusiasm is picked up by Asian buyers, European Indexs today can also advance above. It is seen, euphoria is premature. A sharp jump in volatility occurred in the global foreign exchange market. First of all, it is worth noting a strong decrease in the dollar against global world currencies and the restoration of euro and yen. But emotions should soon go down, and the long -playing trends will remain – the devaluation of Japanese and European currencies risks resumes. Meanwhile, yesterday’s ruble assessments were confirmed – optimism was not enough for a long time, and the currency sidewall remains. The raw material market received support from the fall of the dollar, and Brent rose above $ 97, dismissing the sharp increase in raw oil in the States. At the same time, the risk of dumping futures into the area of ​​$ 90 is preserved, and the oil -trafficking will try to protect the three -digit bar.

Russian ruble could not continue the positive trend of Tuesday and on Wednesday lost all conquests. The currencies were strengthened by 1-2%. And such an outcome was read the day before. The dollar is still clamped in a narrow corridor of 59-61 rubles, and its narrowing is observed to the ruble range. The output ripens, presumably up the USD/RUB.

we actually have a temporary “fixed” ruble exchange rate, and in the media, the topic of departure from the floating course of the national currency, apparently, against the background of the devaluation process, began to discuss. On the one hand, stabilization of the currency market improves medium -term forecasting of foreign trade. But on the other hand, fixing the course completely eliminates the responsiveness of the ruble to changes in the outer circuit.

global inflation. Imported goods, and the fortress of the ruble, in case of departure from a floating course, will be forced to support the Central Bank through interventions. But for 8 years, Russia has switched to a floating course. Also, if there is a stronger correction of commodity markets, and the Russian economy is tied to raw materials export, then an expensive fixed ruble will beat the budgets of companies and the state, and it will not work to weaken the ruble so simply.

therefore, the formation in the ruble in the ruble in the ruble remains only technical and temporary, without actual binding to the cost of foreign currency. At the same time, the exit from the corridor can be swift – the revenues from exports are reduced, the import is trying to recover, and the deficit increases. And the Central Bank can again lower the rate, seeing the acceleration of deflation.

according to our early estimates, after the breakthrough of the upper bar is 61 rubles. For the US dollar, we can talk about 65 USD/RUB flights. According to the results of the year, the probability of seeing 70 per dollar is high.

US dollar index (DXY: 105.4 p.) Trying to see more after more than the percentage of the Strait against the background of encouraging statistics on inflation in the United States. The day before, we noted the likelihood of inflationary cooling, but the numbers came out so vigorous (8.5% after 9.1%) that the traders immediately rushed for purchases of risky papers, and the dollar fell strongly. Investors evaluate the slowdown in inflation as a weighty argument so that the Central Bank stops increasing the rate so much. The urgent market immediately lowered expectations at the rate at the September meeting of the regulator from the step +75 b.p. up to +50 b.p.

Technically region 105 p. Completely supported and earlier it has already resisted the sellers of the dollar. Given the actual recession in the States, the next entry into 20-year peaks, above 109 pics, we do not expect, but we do not consider the observed correction as a long-term trend for strengthening the dollar. Trend supports are unlikely to allow dxy to leave below 100 p.