Forecast of euro to ruble exchange rate for September
In August, the euro rate towards the dollar again decreased. EURUSD pair for the month fell 0.5%. The fall of the euro was mainly due to the strengthening of the dollar throughout the month on the eve of the symposium of the heads of central banks in American Jackson Hole and the announcement of the announcement of the timing of the Fed stimulating monetary policy, but these expectations were not justified, which allowed a single European currency to stop falling by the end of the month. EURRUB pair for August decreased by 0.23% against the background of the euro courage against the dollar, as well as fairly high oil prices that support the stability of the ruble.
In September, the dynamics of EURRUB will be influenced by a number of important events, which we will describe below. On September
,9, the European Central Bank will announce a decision on interest and deposit rates. There is no doubt that the interest rate will remain at zero, and the deposit rate – at negative (-0.5%). The ECB’s accompanying comments will be of greatest interest to the market. And inside the board of governors of the financial regulator there are disagreements in the eurozone: from public assurances that the ECB will not plan to curtail QE until March 2022, to warnings that stimulating monetary policy will remain, but gradually should become more targeted (in particular, this opinion is held by ECB head Christine Lagarde). The direction of the euro will depend on the nature of the comments.
The next day, September 10, the Bank of Russia will announce the decision on the interest rate. And not everything here is as predictable as in The expected decision of the ECB. We believe that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the September meeting can increase the key interest rate by another 0.5 percentage point to 7%, if the inflation of consumer prices in the Russian Federation in August continued to grow (according to preliminary data of Rosstat, it is already clear that in August 2021 traditional ” Food “deflation will not be, unlike past years). Increased key rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may help strengthen the ruble in the short-term aspect.
September 22 Cores of the Fed will make public a decision on interest rates and make statements that excite the global financial market. Although it is clear that the September meeting of the open markets committee will not decide to change the current interest rate corridor in 0-0.25% in any way.
As a result of the meeting, Fed head Jerome Powell may finally decide to announce the timing of the start of QE curtailment. If such deadlines are announced, the US dollar to world currencies may strengthen significantly at the end of September, but if they do not, the dollar may in the short term the aspect will fall strongly, both against the euro and against the ruble.
On the last day of the month, preliminary data on the level of September consumer price inflation in the eurozone will be released. Recall that annual inflation in the eurozone in August rose to a 10-year high of 3%, and the continuation of inflation growth may be a signal that the ECB will begin to curtail the PEPP program before March next year. And such a signal will be able to positively affect the euro. Of course, in the event that annual inflation in the eurozone in September will continue to set new records.
Although another wave of the coronavirus pandemic seems to have begun to leave Russia and China in August, and in the eurozone its negative impact on the economy also decreased, it is too early to talk about defeating the dangerous virus. According to WHO forecasts, a new wave of pandemic is possible this fall, and the world needs to be prepared for it. If such a forecast is justified, the most negative next wave of the pandemic will affect commodity markets, including oil prices, and therefore the ruble exchange rate.
We predict in September the dynamics of the euro against the ruble in the interval of 86-89 rubles. per euro.