Forex forecast for September 10, 2018 – 14.09.2018 – Forex

Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)

The quotations of the euro/dollar pair decreased at the end of last week to 1.1551.

Most of the time, the European currency strengthened against the dollar, but on Friday the pair lost more than a hundred points after another strong release on the labor market in the United States. The number of new jobs created in August in the U.S. was 201,000, which exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate was 3.9%. Wage growth accelerated to 2.9% in August, compared with an expected 2.7%. Wage growth came close to 3% for the first time since 2009. The U.S. labor market remains strong, allowing Donald Trump to be confident in the correctness of the chosen course of domestic economic policy aimed at tax cuts. Markets reacted to the publication by buying the US currency, which led to a fall in the euro/dollar pair's quotations below the support level of 1.1600.

Another important release last week was the updated data of economic growth in the Eurozone for the second quarter of this year. GDP growth was revised downwards to 2.1% year-on-year. Economists expect the eurozone's GDP to strengthen at best at best to be modest, according to a study published on Friday. Growth in the EU economy has remained modest since the beginning of 2018, and the global trade war could lead to further decline. The current forecast implies quarterly growth of 0.4% in 2019, but if the conflict between the U.S., China and the European Union continues, the economy may not even reach this level. According to IMF head Christine Lagarde, further escalation of trade conflicts could be the main threat to the world economy, with the United States in this case suffering less than others.

Another slowdown in inflation in the Eurozone in August allows us to be sure that the ECB will keep the interest rate low for a long time. The first increase is not expected until autumn 2019, and if the basic consumer price index remains at the current level, then the ECB may well resuscitate the program of quantitative easing and return to active purchases of securities.

The euro/dollar pair again approached the lower boundary of the side range of 1.1560 to 1.1800, which traded most of the time since May this year. Given the strong data of the labor market in the U.S. and forecasts of continued growth of the U.S. economy, as well as modest data from the Eurozone, it is likely that already this week quotes may gain a foothold below a strong level of support 1.1560. The development of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has a positive impact on the dollar, so the risks of the pair's growth are close to minimal.

In our forecast for the coming week we expect a further decline in the euro/dollar pair's quotations to support levels of 1.1540, 1.1515, 1.1480, 1.1450 and 1.1420.

Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)

The quotations of the pound/dollar pair decreased slightly last week to 1.2914, although during trading the pair rose above the resistance level of 1.3000.

On Wednesday, the News agency Bloomberg published information that the UK and Germany are ready to abandon a number of key points of principle in order to reach an agreement on Brexit in the near future. The British currency reacted to this news with a sharp rise and exceeded the level of 1.3000. As is often the case in such cases, the information has not been confirmed, which led to the loss of all the positions won by the British pound. No real evidence has been made to advance the negotiations, and the status of the Irish border after the UK's secession remains the most difficult.

However, markets are more optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of this year. The EU's chief negotiator has said previously that the EU is ready to make an unprecedented offer to the UK in order to reach an agreement and prevent a hard Brexit option. There is a certain possibility that such an agreement will be concluded in November.

At the same time, Barnier said on Friday that without a decision on Ireland there will be no agreement on Brexit, and noted that a country that is not a member of the EU, by definition can not occupy the same position as the eu country.

Business activity indices in the three main sectors of the British economy showed mixed dynamics in August. All indicators remain above the principle mark of 50, which indicates that the UK economy remains stable, even given the absence of an agreement on Brexit. Low GDP growth will continue throughout next year, the current forecast assumes quarterly growth of the economy by 0.5%. Inflation expectations of the Bank of England remain quite high. The inflation forecast for next year was revised upwards to 3.0%. Longer-term forecasts also suggest inflation growth of more than 3.0%.

On Thursday, the next meeting of the Bank of England will be held, at which the current course of monetary policy will be discussed. The interest rate is almost certain to remain unchanged, and the British regulator will note in the accompanying statement the growing uncertainty about Brexit and the risks of a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2018. It is unlikely that the reaction of the markets to the outcome of the meeting will be strong, more attention is now caused by news and rumors related to Brexit.

In our forecast for the coming week we assume the development of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair and the decline of quotations to the support levels of 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.1660, 1.2835 and 1.2800.

Forex. Gold price forecast

The quotations of the pound/dollar pair decreased slightly last week to 1.2914, although during trading the pair rose above the resistance level of 1.3000.

On Wednesday, the News agency Bloomberg published information that the UK and Germany are ready to abandon a number of key points of principle in order to reach an agreement on Brexit in the near future. The British currency reacted to this news with a sharp rise and exceeded the level of 1.3000. As is often the case in such cases, the information has not been confirmed, which led to the loss of all the positions won by the British pound. No real evidence has been made to advance the negotiations, and the status of the Irish border after the UK's secession remains the most difficult.

However, markets are more optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of this year. The EU's chief negotiator has said previously that the EU is ready to make an unprecedented offer to the UK in order to reach an agreement and prevent a hard Brexit option. There is a certain possibility that such an agreement will be concluded in November.

At the same time, Barnier said on Friday that without a decision on Ireland there will be no agreement on Brexit, and noted that a country that is not a member of the EU, by definition can not occupy the same position as the eu country.

Business activity indices in the three main sectors of the British economy showed mixed dynamics in August. All indicators remain above the principle mark of 50, which indicates that the UK economy remains stable, even given the absence of an agreement on Brexit. Low GDP growth will continue throughout next year, the current forecast assumes quarterly growth of the economy by 0.5%. Inflation expectations of the Bank of England remain quite high. The inflation forecast for next year was revised upwards to 3.0%. Longer-term forecasts also suggest inflation growth of more than 3.0%.

On Thursday, the next meeting of the Bank of England will be held, at which the current course of monetary policy will be discussed. The interest rate is almost certain to remain unchanged, and the British regulator will note in the accompanying statement the growing uncertainty about Brexit and the risks of a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2018. It is unlikely that the reaction of the markets to the outcome of the meeting will be strong, more attention is now caused by news and rumors related to Brexit.

In our forecast for the coming week we assume the development of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair and the decline of quotations to the support levels of 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.1660, 1.2835 and 1.2800.

Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)

The quotations of the pound/dollar pair decreased slightly last week to 1.2914, although during trading the pair rose above the resistance level of 1.3000.

On Wednesday, the News agency Bloomberg published information that the UK and Germany are ready to abandon a number of key points of principle in order to reach an agreement on Brexit in the near future. The British currency reacted to this news with a sharp rise and exceeded the level of 1.3000. As is often the case in such cases, the information has not been confirmed, which led to the loss of all the positions won by the British pound. No real evidence has been made to advance the negotiations, and the status of the Irish border after the UK's secession remains the most difficult.

However, markets are more optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of this year. The EU's chief negotiator has said previously that the EU is ready to make an unprecedented offer to the UK in order to reach an agreement and prevent a hard Brexit option. There is a certain possibility that such an agreement will be concluded in November.

At the same time, Barnier said on Friday that without a decision on Ireland there will be no agreement on Brexit, and noted that a country that is not a member of the EU, by definition can not occupy the same position as the eu country.

Business activity indices in the three main sectors of the British economy showed mixed dynamics in August. All indicators remain above the principle mark of 50, which indicates that the UK economy remains stable, even given the absence of an agreement on Brexit. Low GDP growth will continue throughout next year, the current forecast assumes quarterly growth of the economy by 0.5%. Inflation expectations of the Bank of England remain quite high. The inflation forecast for next year was revised upwards to 3.0%. Longer-term forecasts also suggest inflation growth of more than 3.0%.

On Thursday, the next meeting of the Bank of England will be held, at which the current course of monetary policy will be discussed. The interest rate is almost certain to remain unchanged, and the British regulator will note in the accompanying statement the growing uncertainty about Brexit and the risks of a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2018. It is unlikely that the reaction of the markets to the outcome of the meeting will be strong, more attention is now caused by news and rumors related to Brexit.

In our forecast for the coming week we assume the development of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair and the decline of quotations to the support levels of 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.1660, 1.2835 and 1.2800.

Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast

The quotations of the pound/dollar pair decreased slightly last week to 1.2914, although during trading the pair rose above the resistance level of 1.3000.

On Wednesday, the News agency Bloomberg published information that the UK and Germany are ready to abandon a number of key points of principle in order to reach an agreement on Brexit in the near future. The British currency reacted to this news with a sharp rise and exceeded the level of 1.3000. As is often the case in such cases, the information has not been confirmed, which led to the loss of all the positions won by the British pound. No real evidence has been made to advance the negotiations, and the status of the Irish border after the UK's secession remains the most difficult.

However, markets are more optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of this year. The EU's chief negotiator has said previously that the EU is ready to make an unprecedented offer to the UK in order to reach an agreement and prevent a hard Brexit option. There is a certain possibility that such an agreement will be concluded in November.

At the same time, Barnier said on Friday that without a decision on Ireland there will be no agreement on Brexit, and noted that a country that is not a member of the EU, by definition can not occupy the same position as the eu country.

Business activity indices in the three main sectors of the British economy showed mixed dynamics in August. All indicators remain above the principle mark of 50, which indicates that the UK economy remains stable, even given the absence of an agreement on Brexit. Low GDP growth will continue throughout next year, the current forecast assumes quarterly growth of the economy by 0.5%. Inflation expectations of the Bank of England remain quite high. The inflation forecast for next year was revised upwards to 3.0%. Longer-term forecasts also suggest inflation growth of more than 3.0%.

On Thursday, the next meeting of the Bank of England will be held, at which the current course of monetary policy will be discussed. The interest rate is almost certain to remain unchanged, and the British regulator will note in the accompanying statement the growing uncertainty about Brexit and the risks of a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2018. It is unlikely that the reaction of the markets to the outcome of the meeting will be strong, more attention is now caused by news and rumors related to Brexit.

In our forecast for the coming week we assume the development of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair and the decline of quotations to the support levels of 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.1660, 1.2835 and 1.2800.