Gold: buy, keep or \”drain\”?
this year, gold does not show impressive profitability, but also does not demonstrate crushing poor dynamics, like some other classes of assets. Does gold remain relevant in the foreseeable perspective? Let’s understand. It should be noted that the volatility of gold all this time remained low enough, which can be written in plus to precious metal.
If you look at the dynamics from the beginning of the year, gold behaves better than:
euros, yuan and most other currencies with the exception of the US dollar Russian And foreign bonds of the Russian, American and Chinese stock market
is the bottom close?
If you simplify the current complex macroeconomic picture, then the future dynamics of gold rests on two factors:
How far the FRS will go in an increase in interest rates whether the growth of interest rates (in combination with other factors) is a full -fledged recession in the United States in this or next year
Fed It continues to tighten monetary policy, which leads to an increase in profitability according to US government bonds. However, we emphasize that now gold demonstrates exceptional stability against the growth of the profitability of American Treasury. Despite the fabulous increase in profitability over the past year and a half, gold did not even closely decrease by a proportionate value. We admit that this is due to the sharply changed geopolitical situation, as well as with the expectation of a recession by investors.
talking about a recession, in the aggregate of macro -recessors, the American economy is closer to it than usual, but still far from critical levels of 2001 and 2007 This suspended state is more likely to the hands of gold quotes, as it adds uncertainty.
If the recession still occurred, the first 6-8 months after its beginning (for the example of three past recessions-in 1990, 2001 and 2007), gold showed a double-digit profitability, which later faded to zero on the horizon of 12 months from The beginning of the recession. This means that those who want to invest in gold as insurance from a recession will need to carefully look for the optimal output point in order not only to play it safe, but also earn. Most analysts agree that the recession in the United States in 2023 is very likely. The beginning of the recession can be considered a conditional bottom for gold, since the Fed will have to reduce the rate, the profitability of the bonds will fall, and the geopolitical situation will remain tense with a high probability.
Gold or gold miners?
Russian gold miners in the person of the pole and polymetall recently reported for the first half of the year – worse than expectations. Financial indicators fell against the background of a fall in prices for gold, as well as increasing costs due to inflation and sanctions. Nevertheless, the current decline in financial indicators and quotations makes shares of both companies in their own way attractive to the long term. The implementation of the key investment project of the pole – the Dry Log deposit – now nothing threatens. Polymetall, in turn, begins to disclose the first details for further management. According to CFO Polymetal, the company plans to redomycy in the friendly Russian Federation of jurisdiction. Wherein The division of business into Russian and international units is currently not considered. Any new details bringing specifics to the situation can be considered by investors in the polymetall action as a moderate positive that reduces the risk of uncertainty.
, given that the bottom of the gold market is possible somewhere close, the next 3-6 months can be an excellent period for a leisurely formation of a long-term position in Russian gold miners.
Conclusion
depending on the investment The horizon of gold continues to be an actual asset that shows a relatively low volatility in dynamics, which is better than most assets in the market. “Virtual” gold can be suitable for medium -term investment, physical and shares of gold miners look more attractive to the long -term perspective.
