Gold rate recovers from $1,200 per ounce: Forecast for November 19
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
In Friday's trading, the European currency was characterized by a rapid upward movement. Starting the trading session at 1.1345, by the end of the day the euro/dollar pair was trading at 1.1410, where the flat occurred. Thus, contrary to the update of annual lows last week, on Friday there was an attempt to correct the market.
The speech of Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, had a positive impact on the European currency. His speech reassured traders about the prospects of the euro. The weakening of the dollar against the background of news about the U.S.-China trade war was also a boost to the pair's growth.
The dynamics within the pair were also determined by macroeconomic indicators. On Friday, traders reacted to the report on inflation in the Eurozone at the end of October. Experts expected that the consumer price index will remain unchanged at 1.1%. This coincided with the actual indicators and was positively received by the market. Italian consumer price index data was an unexpected but stimulating factor for the growth of the euro: with a projected value of -0.4%, this index was 0.0%.
American statistics failed to outweigh the negative effect of the news agenda. Despite the fact that the utilization rate of production capacity was higher than expected, the volume of industrial production showed a decline for the fourth month in a row from 0.2% in the last period to 0.1%.
On Monday, volatility in the euro/dollar pair is likely to increase with mostly downward momentum due to the Italian crisis and testing support levels of 1.1390, 1.1375 and 1.1360.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The quotations of the pound/dollar pair rose at the end of the trading week. The movement started at 1.2785, and by the end of the trading session the pair had moved to the level of 1.2830. At the same time, the local resistance level of 1.2870 was broken at the auction, accompanied by a pullback.
The positive dynamics are due to the sell-off of the US dollar, associated with the recovery in the stock markets, and news regarding the trade war between the United States and China.
Despite Friday's rise in the pound, which offset the fallout from the news of the resignation of Dominic Raab, the minister on Britain's exit from the European Union on Thursday, Brexit remains a determining factor in the dynamics of the British currency. A vote of no confidence in Theresa May, the British prime minister, is expected on Tuesday, which will begin to win back the market as early as the beginning of the week. In addition, a Brexit negotiator has yet to be appointed, contributing to the general political instability.
Macroeconomic indicators also do not play in favor of the pound. Last week's unemployment and retail data show a systemic crisis linked to Brexit.
Rightmove is scheduled to publish the house price index on Monday. Recently, statistics on the housing sector have been a weak link in British macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the upcoming release may affect the pound in a negative way.
Today we expect a correctional decline in the value of the pound against the dollar due to pressure on the British currency against the background of news about Brexit to the support levels of 1.2810, 1.2785 and 1.2770.
Forex. Gold price forecast
On Friday, there was a rapid rise in the price of gold from the level of 1215 to 1223 dollars per troy ounce.
The dynamics of the gold exchange rate on Friday was largely determined by news about the trade war between China and the United States, a new round of which happened last Thursday. It became known about the low probability of signing a trade agreement between the two states, which was planned during the G-20 summit, due to China's negative reaction to certain demands from the Trump administration related to trade reform.
Gold quotes are supported by positive data of macroeconomic statistics from China, weakening the dollar against the background of trade confrontation between the countries. The U.S. stock market is also on the side of gold, due to the next sell-offs that took place in the week. In addition, the gold exchange rate was affected by Friday's recovery of euro/dollar pairs and pound/dollar, accompanied by a significant increase in the European and British currencies.
U.S. government bonds showed a decline on Friday, although they were in demand throughout the week, which further stimulated the rise in the price of the precious metal.
In our forecast, we assume that today gold will demonstrate further upward dynamics, aiming for resistance levels of 1228, 1231 and 1233 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
Friday was marked by a moderate drop in oil prices. Thus, for a barrel of WTI crude oil at the time of the opening of trading asked for 56.88 dollars, after which it rose to 57.45, again dropping to 56.10 dollars by the evening. Thus, the total decline in the price of oil at the end of last week amounted to 6.2%.
The slump in the oil price is due to the release of Baker Hughes' reporting. According to the company's data, which became known on Friday, in the week ended November 16, the number of active drilling rigs of American oil companies increased by two to 888 units. This is the highest increase since March 2015 and the fifth increase in the number of installations in the last six weeks. The market reacted to this news negatively, as it indicates the intentions of American companies to increase oil production and may result in a decrease in demand for raw materials due to its oversupply in the United States.
At the moment, the official statement of representatives of OPEC states on the reduction of oil production from 2019 to reduce world reserves, maintain the balance between supply and demand and maintain commodity prices has no significant impact on the dynamics oil quotes. It caused a correction in the price of oil on Friday, however, this effect was leveled against the background of Baker Hughes reporting.
Today we expect the downtrend for oil to continue against the background of Baker Hughes reporting, support levels may reach 55.90, 55.85 and 55.50 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
At the trading session on Friday, cryptocurrencies showed weak downward dynamics and traded within the lateral range. At the moment, the market is making almost no attempts to recover, as evidenced by the protracted flat after the fall in the value of major digital currencies on Tuesday last week in the wake of the rollback of Bitcoin Cash.
Bitcoin was at $5,699 at the beginning of trading on Friday and reached $5,668 at the end of trading. For the unit Ethereum Friday morning asked 182 dollars, and by the evening the cryptocurrency was trading for 179 dollars. Ripple started the day with 0.4831 dollars and at the end of the session fell to the level of 0.4770 dollars.
At the weekend there were rumors that Ripple could become the base currency of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance. They were generated by a recent Post on Twitter by Binance CEO Changpeng zhao, in which he wonders how to make Ripple the main currency of the platform, as he has been repeatedly asked by the Ripple community.
Last week, of all cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization, only Ripple showed growth, not succumbing to the general downward trend due to the fall of Bitcoin Cash, which also indicates a high confidence in traders. In addition, Ripple already has the status of the main currency on the CoinField Exchange and is the base currency on the XRP United Exchange.
A joint report by the Central Banks of Canada, the United Kingdom and Singapore that central bank digital currencies are a suitable solution for international settlements may also affect the market recovery. The report examined three models of the use of cryptocurrencies for wholesale and retail purchases.
In today's trading, we expect further trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the flat with a slight correction alwill. Ripple's more dynamic growth is possible due to the positive news context. Resistance levels for Bitcoin can be $5,780, $5,857 and $6,000. Ethereum will closely correlate with the Bitcoin movement and test resistance levels of $185, $189 and $193.
Ripple will be the most likely to rise, with resistance levels of 0.5240, 0.5256 and 0.5278 dollars likely.