Is the dollar correction over? Forecast for September 17 – Forex
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
The quotations of the euro-dollar pair fell sharply on Friday and ended the weekly trading at 1.1621.
The trade balance of the Eurozone fell sharply to 12.8 billion euros in July, which is significantly lower than the previous month and preliminary forecasts. Moreover, the index has fallen to its lowest level since 2014. Remarkably, the reduction in the trade surplus is primarily due to a significant increase in imports to the Eurozone from Russia compared to last year.
It is very likely that the peak of the euro-dollar correction has already passed. At a meeting last week, the European Central Bank raised its economic growth forecasts for the current and next years. ECB chief Mario Draghi separately noted the growing risks associated with trade wars, growing tensions in emerging economies and high volatility in financial markets. Basic inflation in the Eurozone remains low, despite the best efforts of the regulator. The interest rate will remain low for quite some time. In the near future, the euro dollar will test the lower boundary of the wide range by 1.1560, and by the end of the year it is expected to decrease to support levels of 1.1450 and 1.1300.
In our forecast for Monday, we expect a slight increase in the quotations of the euro-dollar pair to the resistance levels of 1.1635 and 1.1650, after which we expect a reversal and fall to the marks of 1.1620, 1.1600 and 1.1580.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The British currency fell sharply against the US at the end of last week, the pound dollar ended the trading session on Friday at 1.3053.
The decline in the quotations of the pair is primarily due to the strengthening of the US currency after the correctional fall earlier. U.S. retail sales growth fell to 0.1 percent in August. At the same time, most economists agree that these data will not change the current forecasts for strengthening consumer spending and GDP growth in the third quarter of this year about 3%.
On Friday, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, in which he quite positively assessed the inflationary pressure, which remains above the target level of 2% and noted the acceleration of growth in average wages, which has a positive effect on consumer activity. This time Carney hardly talked about Brexit, although it is obvious that negotiations with the European Union will remain the main factor in the movement of the pound's quotes in the coming week. Earlier it appeared that the negotiators have made some progress on the main issue – the status of the Irish border. At the same time, in the British media again there were rumors that Prime Minister Theresa May is under serious pressure from the opposition in Parliament to conclude an agreement with the European Union.
In our forecast for today we expect a slight increase in the quotations of the pound/dollar pair to the resistance levels of 1.3070, 1.3090 and 1.3115.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold prices fell sharply on Friday, overcame the key support level of 1200 dollars and reached the mark of 1193 dollars per troy ounce.
Earlier, the price of gold rose on the news that the U.S. is ready to negotiate with China on the introduction of new customs duties. However, the probability that Donald Trump will fulfill his intentions and announce the application of new tariffs on Chinese imports worth 200 billion dollars is very high. The American economy is in a better situation and will be able to better bear the consequences of the trade war. At the same time, a number of U.S. companies focused on business with China will also suffer from new duties of 25%. In this case, U.S. stock indices will move from current highs, which will eventually support the price of gold.
The current forecast for the growth of the U.S. economy for the third quarter assumes a strengthening of about 3%. This is a fairly high indicator and in this case the demand for gold will remain limited, against the background of more profitable investments in the dollar. Most economists expect the price of gold to rise to $1,250 an ounce by the end of the year, but these assumptions are likely to be premature. Gold will start to rise in price not before there is real evidence of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which will happen no earlier than in 2019.
In our forecast for Monday, we expect a slight increase in gold quotations to resistance levels of 1195, 1197 and 1200 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil rose slightly during the trading session on Friday and reached the resistance level of $69.00 per barrel.
For the first time in 20 years, the United States has become a world leader in oil production, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, it will remain a leader in raw materials production until the end of 2019. Production levels in Russia and Saudi Arabia have remained at an average level in recent years, while the United States has been actively increasing shale oil production. On Friday, Baker Hughes reported an increase in the number of active oil rigs in the United States in the past week. The number of installations increased by seven units to 867. The annual growth was 13%. All three of the world's major producers of raw materials – the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia – agree on the need to increase production against the background of the approaching sanctions against Iran and the fall in production in Venezuela. This was announced on Friday by U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.
In general, the oil market remains in a state of uncertainty, quotes are traded in a wide range of 65.00 – 70.00 dollars per barrel. With a high probability next week the dynamics will not change and the increase in the price of a barrel of WTI oil to the upper boundary of the range can be considered as an opportunity to open positions for sale.
In our forecast for today we expect the growth of WTI crude oil quotations to resistance levels of 69.25, 69.50 and 69.75 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
At the end of last week, the major cryptocurrencies continued to recover. Bitcoin quotes rose to the level of 6500 dollars, and the price of ethereum reached 220 dollars.
ECB chief Mario Draghi said on Friday that the European regulator has no plans to issue its digital currency. According to Draghi, cryptocurrencies need to check the time before the ECB considers the feasibility of their use. Explaining the reason for this position, Draghi stressed the immaturity of cryptocurrency technology and the investment risks associated with it. A joint report by the ECB and the Bank for International Settlements highlighted the side effects of the potential release of the digital currency and noted the need for more research in this area in a timely manner.
France has introduced a new legal framework for initial token placements.The new law allows the French financial regulator, the Financial Markets Authority, to approve and issue permits to businesses planning to conduct ICOs in France, but only if these projects provide specific guarantees for investors. Issuers will be required to fully disclose AMF information, allowing buyers to make informed decisions about ICOs. The French regulator has previously raised concerns about the lack of clear regulation of the sale of tokens as an integral risk factor for ICOs, which increases the risks of investment loss, money laundering and terrorist financing. Back in April, the French authorities reduced the tax on income from cryptocurrency transactions by more than half to 19 percent, which was largely perceived as a positive development for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry in the world's sixth largest economy .
In our forecast for Monday, we expect the growth of bitcoin quotes to reach resistance levels of 6550, 6600 and 6700 dollars, as well as the strengthening of the ethereum to the marks 225, 230 and 240 dollars.
