Is the dollar correction over? Forecast for September 4 – Forex
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
Euro/dollar prices recovered slightly on Monday against the background of low-volatility trading due to the celebration of Labor Day in the United States. The pair overcame the resistance level of 1.1600 and reached the mark of 1.1620.
Business indices in the manufacturing sector of Italy, France and Germany showed a decline in August. Italian government bond yields fell slightly, as did the spread with German securities. Previously, the leading rating agencies kept the rating of Italy unchanged, but lowered the forecast for the negative. Markets are waiting for the publication of the draft budget of Italy for the next year and details about the plans of the authorities with regard to public spending, which could jeopardize the implementation of a number of requirements of the European Union.
Today's trading session should become much more active. Markets are waiting for developments in the U.S.-China trade conflict and the possible introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports amounting to 200 billion dollars. In the U.S. will publish indices of business activity, which are forecast to be divergent, will be speeches of representatives of the Fed.
Autumn 2018 promises to be very hot in the currency markets, given the numerous political and economic conflicts, the time to resolve which is steadily reduced. The EU is far from the unity it was conceived in its creation, and the example of The Uk could inspire some other populist governments.
In our forecast for Tuesday we expect a further decline in the euro/dollar pair's quotations against the support levels of 1.1600, 1.1580 and 1.1560.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The British currency started the new trading week with a decline, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair fell below the support level of 1.2900 and reached the level of 1.2875.
The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector fell to 52.8 in August. The index reached another low this year against the background of pressure on the British economy. The short-term euphoria caused last week by Michel Barnier's announcement of a possible proposal that the EU is ready to make to the UK is quickly over. The pound/dollar pair resumed the decline, pushing back from a strong resistance level of 1.3000. Barnier said he was not happy with the CURRENT UK proposal, while Theresa May ruled out holding a new referendum.
The pound/dollar rate fell yesterday below the level of the 200-day moving average line for the first time since August 20. Most likely, the new stage of the downtrend of the pair will not be as strong as the previous one. The likelihood of a trade deal between the EU and the UK has increased and will support the pound. At the same time, information volatility remains as high as possible and any rumors about an agreement can lead to sharp movements in both directions.
In our forecast for today's trading we assume the further development of the downtrend of the pound/dollar pair and the decline of quotations to the support levels of 1.2860, 1.2840 and 1.2815.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold prices moved with low volatility on Monday against the background of the holiday in the U.S. and a number of non-performing trading platforms, and practically did not change at the end of the day, ending the session at 1201 dollars per troy ounce.
In Monday's trading session, the price of gold fell to $1,195 per ounce, after which it quickly recovered. The main factors of the movement of quotations in the coming days will remain the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, Donald Trump's reluctance to compromise with Canada and expectations of another increase in the US interest rate at the Fed meeting in September.
Separately, there are a number of economic and currency crises in a number of countries that are generally classified as emerging markets. We have repeatedly mentioned the collapse in Turkey, where the national currency lost more than 20% of its value against the dollar, the risk of global default became more than real, and the United States imposed a number of sanctions on the government. In addition to Turkey, iran, where the national currency has lost more than 60% of its value since the beginning of this year, as well as India and Indonesia, where the process of devaluing money continues, albeit at a sharp pace, as in Turkey and Iran. The decline in the value of the domestic currency inevitably leads to demand for the dollar and for gold as safe assets. Traditionally, in this situation gold was preferred, but today the dollar is increasingly popular. Thus, if earlier the growth of geopolitical risks led to an increase in demand for gold, today the paradoxical way the price of gold can decline with the growth of risks.
In our forecast for Tuesday we expect a further decline in gold quotations to support levels of 1199, 1197 and 1194 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil prices rose very slightly in Monday's trading and consolidated around the level of $70.00 per barrel at the end of the session.
Iranian oil exports fell by 150,000 barrels per day last month. By November, the drop in supplies could reach 1.5 million barrels. A number of large refineries are beginning to refuse to purchase raw materials in Iran because of U.S. sanctions. Negotiations with the U.S. over easing are continuing, but so far there is little chance of success. Some companies from Europe, Japan and South Korea have already stopped supplying from Iran, but their share in the global market is quite small. The most important choice for the oil market will be China, the largest supplier of Iranian oil.
In addition to Iran, the situation in Venezuela, where the collapse in oil production continues to fall, supports the quotes. According to OPEC, in July production in this country fell by another 47,000 barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels. Due to the ongoing economic crisis and political instability, production may fall below a million barrels, which is actually half the peak at the beginning of the year.
In our forecast for today we expect the growth of WTI crude oil quotations to resistance levels of 70.15, 70.30 and 70.60 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Cryptocurrency assets were trading with low activity on Monday. The price of bitcoin rose slightly to the mark of 7300 dollars, and the quotes of ethereum decreased to the mark of 290 dollars.
Cryptocurrency company Tether transferred the next batch of USDT tokens to the Wallet of the Bitfinex exchange – the size of the transaction was 100 million. As the last time, when 50 million tokens were received on the account of the exchange, the transaction affected the price of bitcoin. Given the close relationship between Tether and Bitfinex, many in the community point out that it is almost natural to see a sharp but short-term rise in bitcoin after every USDT infusion into Bitfinex. The biggest issue was June 25, when Tether released $250 million. Immediately after that, the rate of bitcoin against the dollar rose and reached at the peak of more than 6300 dollars. Then after the main cryptocurrency pulled up and the rest. However, after a short increase, the price went down and soon updated the lows.
Western Union is discussing a joint settlement project with Ripple Labs. Details of the project are not disclosed yet, but it is obvious that this could be a big milestone for ripple as well as for the entire cryptocurrency industry. Presumably, Western Union could be interested in the possibility of using cryptocurrency to make international transfers in the fastest and cheapest way, but this has not yet been confirmed. Cryptocurrency XRP, which is the development of Ripple, remains one of the most controversial. Earlier, a number of lawsuits were filed against Ripple, as a result of which the company tried to distance itself from its cryptocurrency.
In our forecast for Tuesday, we expect further slight growth in bitcoin quotes to resistance levels of 7350, 7400, 7500 dollars and strengthening of the ethereum to the marks 295, 300 and 310 dollars.
