Oil on the way to $ 100 per barrel
on Friday, raw materials were grew by a wide front against the backdrop of mitigating fears due to the global recession, as well as rumors about China’s refusal of “zero tolerance” to Covid-19. These factors speak in favor of a stronger demand and support Commodities quotes.
Brent futures jumped by 4%. This morning, the tool is adjusted, since the information on the softening of the quarantines in China has not received official confirmation. Chinese officials on weekends confirmed their commitment to a strict approach In the fight against infection.
Brent technical picture demonstrates a fracture of the descending trend and an attempt to return to three -digit levels. With a favorable information background, this may well happen, although at a round mark of $ 100, the resistance of sellers can be quite large.
FRS may slow down
on Friday representatives of the US Federal Reserve noted that they are still considering the possibility of a more restrained step in raising the key rate, despite the strong employment data. This supported Optimism on raw materials and stock platforms. According to the Cme FedWatch Tool, at the December meeting of the regulator, the markets are waiting for a step of 50 B.P. With a probability of 61.5% versus 38.5% per step 75 B.P.
US dollar index on Friday sharply decreased, supporting the dynamics of raw materials nominated in the US currency. A weaker dollar makes oil more accessible to holders of other currencies and maintains demand.
Saudi Arabia announced OSP for December
Saudi Arabia at the end of the week lowering official vacation pay The price (OSP) for its export Arab Light oil variety for Asian buyers is $ 0.4 to $ 5.45 over the Dubai/Oman benchmark. This is a signal about the slight cooling of the Asian market, which is expected by the end of the year. The largest buyers of Saudi oil in Asia are China, Japan, South Korea, India.
December prices for European consumers, on the contrary, were increased by $ 0.8 to $ 1.7 above the Brent level. Prices for the United States remained unchanged.
Book activity in the USA
according to Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs In the United States last week, it grew by 3 mouths, to 613 lips. Drill activity continues to stagnate, although in October a small monthly increase was recorded for the first time since July. There are no reasons to expect acceleration of production. In recent months, it has stably lasted in the region of 12 million b/s and by December 2022, EIA is waiting for a modest growth of up to 12.2 million b/s. At the same time, the production forecast is reduced every month, so that the actual values may well be even lower.
This morning, Brent futures fall by 0.9% and trade in the area $ 97.7 per barrel.