Oil price drop slows: Forecast for November 15 – Forex
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
The quotations of the euro/dollar pair were little changed at the end of the trading session on Wednesday and reached the mark of 1.1308 at the end of the day.
The updated indicators of economic growth of the Eurozone for the third quarter of this year were fully in line with preliminary indicators. On a quarterly basis, GDP growth was only 0.2%, and in the annual 1.7%, which was the worst result since 2014. The economy of the Eurozone remains in recession, and together with low inflation contributes to the fall of the European currency.
Weak u.S. inflation data gave little reason for the recovery of the euro/dollar pair, but the overall trend remains downward. The basic consumer price index fell to 2.1% in October. Expectations for growth were higher against the backdrop of a strong labor market. Rising energy prices have supported rising inflation, but core inflation has fallen, although it remains above the Fed's target. Despite the lack of high data, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its intention to continue tightening monetary policy and raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at the December meeting. Any recovery of the euro/dollar pair will be limited by expectations of a rate hike and further strengthening of the dollar.
In our forecast for Thursday, we expect the euro/dollar pair to decline to support levels of 1.1300, 1.1275 and 1.1250.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The pound/dollar pair was trading lower for most of Wednesday's session, but managed to recover by the end of the day to 1.3000.
The high volatility of the pound was due to the divergent news on Brexit in anticipation of the meeting of the UK Cabinet. Following the meeting, British Prime Minister Theresa May said she had received cabinet support for the Brexit deal. Thus, May will present an agreed option to the representatives of the Eurozone in the near future.
The UK consumer price index rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in October, as expected. Earlier, the Bank of England in November spoke of the need to raise interest rates several times in the next three years to curb inflation. However, the prospects for monetary policy, as well as the growth of the economy, depend on the outcome of the agreement on the terms of Brexit, which will take place in March 2019. The absence of an agreement between the EU and the UK will disrupt the Bank of England's plans to tighten monetary policy.
In our forecast for the upcoming trading on Thursday, we expect the growth of the pound/dollar quotations to the resistance levels of 1.3030, 1.3060 and 1.3090.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold rose sharply on Wednesday and reached the resistance level of 1213 dollars per troy ounce.
The price of gold pushed away from the key level of 1200 dollars per ounce and moved to the stage of growth. The strengthening of gold will be limited in the coming weeks on expectations of an interest rate hike in the US at the December meeting of the Fed. Gold is likely to remain broad-looking to $1,250 an ounce until December.
U.S. consumer prices rose in October as expected. The main consumer price index rose to 2.5%, which is caused by a significant strengthening of energy prices. However, given the current sharp fall in oil prices, it can be assumed that the main indicator of inflation will slow down growth in the near future. The benchmark consumer price index rose 2.1 percent, slightly below expectations, which in turn was due to slower house price growth. Overall, the report suggests that the benchmark price index for personal consumption spending may fall below 2%, but not enough to prevent the Fed from raising rates at the December meeting, so the pressure on the price of gold will continue.
In our forecast for today we expect a decline in gold quotations to support levels of 1210, 1207 and 1205 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil prices recovered slightly in the trading session on Wednesday and reached the level of 56.20 dollars per barrel at the end of the day.
According to the monthly report of OPEC, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased oil production, offsetting the decline in production in Venezuela and Iran. Expectations of U.S. sanctions led to an 8.6 percent drop in Iran's oil production to 3.3 million barrels. Venezuela's economic crisis has triggered a 5.5 percent drop in production to 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC has increased production by 263,000 barrels per day since August, while Russia has increased by nearly 200,000 barrels. The UAE and Saudi Arabia account for the bulk of the increase in oil production in OPEC.
The U.S. allowed individual countries to continue importing Iranian oil, and continued to increase the pace of shale oil production. Venezuela plans to increase raw material production by one million barrels per day in the first half of 2019.
The next meeting of OPEC ministers is due in early December. The meeting will discuss reducing total raw material production by one million barrels next year. Preliminary support for this proposal was expressed by the majority of OPEC member countries.
In our forecast for today we expect further recovery of WTI crude oil quotations to resistance levels of 56.40, 56.60 and 57.00 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Cryptocurrency market fell sharply on Wednesday, many assets lost more than 10% in one trading session. Bitcoin fell to 5700, Ethereum fell to 180 and XRP reached support of 0.4520 dollars.
As a result of trading, the cryptocurrency market lost a total of almost 10 billion dollars of capitalization. The price of bitcoin has almost reached its minimum value in 2018. The price lost all cryptocurrencies from the top 10, and more than others decreased BitcoinCash, which reached the mark of 435 dollars on the eve of its hard fork.
Cryptocurrency traders assume a decrease in the price of BitcoinCash following the split, which will take place today. Currently, the number of open short positions, assuming that the price of BCH will fall, is almost twice the long positions on the increase in the price of cryptocurrency. The total volume of both short and long positions on BCH reached record highs over the past 24 hours. Judging by the rapid growth of short positions, the market believes that the most likely result will be the further sale of the asset. Over the past five days, the price of BitcoinCash has increased by more than 50%, reaching a two-month high of $646.
As part of one possible outcome, BCH's hardfork will be divided into two cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin ABC, which focuses on current software, and Bitcoin SV, focused on the new version of the software. The result is two different versions of the code. Traders who own Bitcoin Cash will have access to the coins of both chains under this scenario.
In our forecast for Thursday we expect a further decline in Bitcoin quotes to support levels of 5650, 5600 and 5550, a drop in Ethereum to 175, 172 and 170, and a decrease in XRP to support 0.4500, 0.4430 and 0.4250.