Oil prices fell sharply: Forecast for October 11 – Forex
Forex. Euro/dollar forecast (EUR/USD)
The euro/dollar pair rose sharply on Wednesday, overcame the resistance level of 1.1500 and reached the level of 1.1518.
The US dollar was falling yesterday against the main assets, the fall was caused by a large lyre of technical correction. There were no fundamentally new economic or geopolitical changes that could affect the dollar yesterday. The producer price index rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in the United States in September, slightly worse than forecasts. The overall annual index has been growing since the beginning of 2016 and remains close to its highest since 2012. The basic price index for personal consumption in August remained unchanged compared to July. Despite the high employment in the U.S. labor market, inflation is not rising and remains at the target of the Federal Reserve.
The strengthening of the euro was limited by fears of the situation in Italy. The government still intends to increase the budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP to reduce the retirement age, abolish VAT increases and increase public spending. Formally, this increase does not violate the rules of the European Union, according to which the deficit can not exceed 3% of GDP. However, the EU categorically does not recommend Italy to increase the deficit, given the high level of the country's public debt.
In our forecast for Thursday we expect further growth of euro/dollar quotations against resistance levels of 1.1570, 1.1590 and 1.1625.
Forex. Pound/dollar currency pair forecast (GBP/USD)
The British currency continued to strengthen on Thursday against the US, the pair pound/dollar reached the mark of 1.3188 by the end of the trading session.
The rise of the British pound continued thanks to new reports of progress in negotiations between the UK and the European Union. According to Bloomberg, negotiators are discussing a compromise version of Brexit that will resolve the issue of the status of the Irish border and preserve some of the existing customs agreements. Against the background of this publication, the pound/dollar pair overcame the resistance level of 1.3200 and reached a two-week high. According to the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier, an agreement on Brexit could be reached as early as next week during a summit of EU leaders. In this case, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair can rise sharply by several hundred points.
Britain's GDP in August was unchanged from July. The UK economy remains at a low level of growth due to the protracted Brexit negotiations. Manufacturing output fell 0.2 percent in August, while manufacturing rose 0.2 percent over the same period. In August, the trade deficit widened to 11.2 billion pounds from 10.4 billion last month.
In our forecast for today's trading we expect further growth of the pound/dollar quotations to the resistance levels of 1.3200, 1.3220 and 1.3250.
Forex. Gold price forecast
Gold rose in Wednesday's trading session and reached a resistance level of $1,193 per troy ounce.
Gold received support from a slight decline in the US stock market and a fall in the dollar index by 0.2%. At the same time, gold remains in a narrow range at the key level of 1200 dollars per ounce since mid-August. The current consolidation should give new impetus to the gold trend, with the factors in favor of long-term growth and decline at the moment almost equal. A trade war between the United States and China could lead to a centralized devaluation of the yuan, which in turn would trigger a similar reaction from the currencies of other developing countries, some of which are now in crisis. The US dollar in this case will rise sharply against most currencies, which will lead to pressure on gold. In the long term, the support level for gold is at $1,050 per ounce.
The alternative, which is very successful among analysts, implies a decline in the U.S. economy in the next two to three years and gold growth to the levels of 1400 and 1500 dollars per ounce. In addition, the crisis can become global, which will cause an increase in demand for gold from investors.
In our forecast for today we expect a further slight increase in gold quotations to resistance levels of 1195, 1198 and 1200 dollars per troy ounce.
Forex. North American Oil Forecast (WTI)
WTI crude oil fell on Wednesday to $72.75 per barrel.
The sharp intraday drop in quotations was due to an increase in the forecast for oil prices for 2018-2019 and a forecast for the production of raw materials in the United States next year. The Energy Information Administration revised its forecast for U.S. oil production for 2019 to rise 2.3 percent to 11.76 million barrels per day.
Oil prices also fell after the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, raising fears of lower oil demand. The decline in the global economy is expected due to the likely further development of the trade conflict between the United States and China, as well as the possible deep economic crisis in a number of developing countries.
In addition, investors began to lower the negative impact of Hurricane Michael in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the hurricane may be one of the most destructive in the last 10 years, it will not affect production areas, so oil production will return to normal levels within four to five days. Previously, it was assumed that the production of raw materials in the Gulf of Mexico could be reduced by almost 40% as a result of the hurricane.
In our forecast for Thursday we expect a further decline in THE quotations of WTI crude oil to the support levels of 72.40, 72.00 and 71.70 dollars per barrel.
Forex. Cryptocurrency forecast
Major cryptocurrency assets resumed decline after protracted trading in the flat. Bitcoin fell to 6350, ethereum reached 205, and XRP fell to 0.42 dollars.
Mastercard has received a patent for a system that will allow you to run different types of blockchain, including those that support multiple currencies. According to the developers, there is a need for a technology solution to provide a technology that is able to store multiple formats and types of transactions in a single chain, reducing computing resources and computing power and the work of the blockchain. Mastercard is considered the record holder for the number of patent applications for blockchain technology for its products and services. The company has already patented blockchain to link the account to cryptocurrency and make anonymous transactions. The company intends to patent another 30 proprietary developments based on blockchain, in particular to protect identification data, verify coupons and payment cards in retail outlets, as well as to track payments.
VTB Bank is testing the system of registration of mortgage transactions with electronic mortgages in a decentralized depositary system at Masterchain. According to the bank's representatives, the project can be rolled out for large-scale use as early as the first quarter of 2019. The first mortgage deals at Masterchain were conducted by Raiffeisenbank and AyTeko. Gazprombank and AK Bars Bank are currently working on the pilot project, and soon other participants are going to join them. Blockchain technology allows to significantly increase the speed of operations and ensure the reliability and safety of information in the process of electronic interaction.
In our forecast for Thursday, we expect further declines in bitcoin quotes to support 6300, 6200 and 6100, ethereum to 205, 200 and 190, as well as xRP drops to 0.41, 0.40 and 0.39 dollars.