. As a result, the index beat the resistance area 92.95-93.05, increasing the risk of further growth in the area of 93.40-93.50. It is important to take into account that a bullish scenario can only be implemented if US stock indices continue to fall.
Recall that today the US will report a change in the trade deficit, which may continue to grow, which is negative for the US economy and, as a result, for the stock market.
The overall strengthening of the USD put the necessary pressure on the pair to discontinue support at 1.1800. The closest target for sellers is the mark of 1.1730 and further 1.1700. However, a return above 1.1800 cancels the downside scenario. But if we look at the overall trading dynamics of this currency pair over a larger period of time, we will see a fairly wide side of 1.1700 – 1.1900, the limits of which have broken several times. The fact that at the moment the pair is practically in the middle of this sidebar indicates that the market is still in a stage of uncertainty. Therefore, it is better to reduce the risk in any open trade on this currency pair.
Once again, the technical support area of 1.2985 – 1.3000 was in office, preventing the pair from developing a stronger wave of decline. I would also like to point out that quotations are still held up in the price channel, which also indicates growth potential. But a bullish scenario requires progress in negotiations between the EU and the British on a trade deal. The overall weakening of the USD also prevents the pair from developing a stronger growth wave.
After falsely breaking the technical resistance level at 104.85, buyer activity decreased significantly and even the strengthening of the USD did not stop the pair from returning to support level 104.40. Another goal at 104.00 has almost been achieved, so active sales on the market is no longer adequate. I recall that the level of 104.00 was created at the end of September, and its breakthrough can provoke a fairly strong wave of sales, returning steam to 103.00 and further to the area of 100.00-100.30. Such a scenario is possible only with an unexpectedly very strong weakening of the USD.