Ten Trends of 2022: What is waiting for investors

The past year was rich in events, large-scale inflation to financial markets: such can be attributed to inflation, new strains of COVID-19, the tightening of state regulation in China, the rise in gas prices in Europe, the topic of cryptocurrency and their recognition at the institutional level, ” Memonic “shares and the influence of private investors from the Reddit forums. In the coming 2022, investors will also need to take into account many factors – some will become a continuation of the events of last year, but it is impossible to exclude the emergence “Black Swans.”

Aton experts chose trends and events that will remain in the focus of investors’ attention in 2022. The listed topics will potentially affect both financial markets and separate companies.

Development of the situation around a pandemic: Victory over Makeup or new mutations?

Alexey Kaminsky, a leading strategist for global stock markets aton

“Next year will be the year of the end of the pandemic. There is a high chance that” Omicron “, which came to us unexpectedly, will become A peculiar nail to the COVID-19 coffin cover, and ultimately a positive factor for risky markets. If official data confirm that a new strain is though more contagious, but it is already much less lethal, it will finally translate coronavirus into seasonal flu status, and a pandemic as a topic can be closed. It will be difficult to call the victory (rather, our adaptation to the pandemic), since the virus itself will not disappear anywhere. “

Nikita Emelyanov, the main managing assets of Aton

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” in 2022 Pandemic theme will remain with us. The authorities of different countries will discuss whether to introduce new restrictive measures. On the one hand, such measures will reduce the number of victims of COVID-19. But on the other hand, it begins to affect the economy (acceleration of inflation, supply interruptions). Considering that locarks provoke protests, the authorities will be inclined to refuse to enter new restrictions, arguing this by the fact that everyone has already been vaccinated, and the rest still do not convince anyway. “

Evgeny Malykhin, head Investment Department of the UK “Aton-Management”

“In early 2020, we learned what COVID-19 was, and about a year later the vaccine was developed. In February, many thought that after mass vaccination the pandemic would end, but in June a new delta appeared in June -Shtam, which showed that the vaccine is not a panacea. Now another strain appeared, “Oomikron” … Of course, all this greatly affects markets, and while this is one of the key factors. ”

Further Dynamics of Global Inflation

Alexander Kudrin, Managing Director, Athon’s chief strategist

“The issue of global and local inflation remains open. The growth of global inflation in 2021 surprised absolutely everyone, ranging from professional analysts that were constantly mistaken in predicting this indicator to ordinary people who found that gasoline prices Or the coffee has become noticeably higher than they are used to see. In my opinion, there are good chances that inflation will begin to slow down. However, in 2021, analysts were too often mistaken in this matter, therefore It is impossible to say with accuracy that there will be no surprises next year. If we speak in the context of Russia, it is important here that inflation determines the policies of the regulator. Accordingly, the policy of the Central Bank defines rates and profitability on the ruble bond market. “

Tightening the monetary policy of the world’s largest Central Bank

Alexander Kudrin, managing director, chief strategist aton

” In Russia, the tightening of monetary policy is already happening. Most likely, we will see more radical Policy and from the leading world regulators (ECB and Fed USA). As for the Fed, I think that the quantitative mitigation program is swollen faster than announced – not in the middle of the next year, but by the end of its first quarter. In 2022, we can see the increase in the interest rate of the Fed from two to three times with a standard pitch of 25 bp. (to a level of 0.5-0.75%). This event will affect both stock markets and bonds. In Russia, as in many other developing economies, the tightening of monetary policy began and increase interest rates. It can be said that our regulator confidently ahead of the American “colleague”, which only hesitates to start raising rates in 2022. We do not exclude that the process of tightening DKP is not finished yet. “

Geopolitics

Evgeny Malykhin, the head of the Investment Department of the UK” ATON-Management “

” Geopolitics, unfortunately, will remain with us and in 2022. That is, we will look not only on the model of companies, but also think about geopolitical risks. ”

Nikita Emelyanov, the main assets of ATON

“Probably, we will see some strengthening of tension in relations between the United States and China. Perhaps it will begin in winter on the background of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Some countries think about a boycott, at a minimum on diplomatic Level: That is, not sending an official delegation, but not limiting athletes. ”

Elimination of “bottlenecks” in supply chains

Mikhail Gonelin, senior analyst Aton

“I want to mention a logistic The crisis caused by the rupture of supply chains. What happened: because of the pandemic and Lokdaunov, people were forced to stay at home, they became massively ordering computers, smartphones, consoles. All this is done in Asia, from where it is delivered to Europe and America. Ports in China are periodically closed, supply chains are broken. In this case, demand remains high, and the proposal is limited. Local problems arise – somewhere shortage of silicon, somewhere in production. As a result, we have huge delivery delays, The demand is higher than the proposal and, as a result, enormous inflation. Now everyone has already bought laptops, telephones, stopped buying techniques in such volumes, so the fall in demand for these things will lead to the recovery of chains. In addition, we are seeing large investments in the construction of chip production factories. I think, the situation will not completely disappear, but it will obviously improve compared to 2021. “

Perestroika of world energy production and energy consumption

Evgeny Malykhin, head of investment The Department of Criminal Code “Aton-Management”

“in the next 10-20-30 years we have to transition from machines with internal combustion engines to electric cars, which in the root will change our world. Many companies will disappear (although someone, of course, will show wonders adaptation), the automotive industry will be rebuilt, world energy production, infrastructure. This is the classic example, when we cannot buy something and forget – we must manage this, watch where the trends go, to be in the shares of those companies that are the beneficiaries of the shift; Accordingly, we should not be in those names that no one will remember about in the future. It is possible to draw an analogy: in the USA more than a hundred years ago there were many companies that produced diligences, carriages, riding saddles. And then the internal combustion engine appeared, and we now don’t even know the names. “

Active ESG-Practitioner

Aleksey Kaminsky, a leading strategist for global stock markets ATON

” ESG is the transformation of business methods in this way So that it become more “friendly” from the point of view of ecology, social policy within companies, corporate practices, increasing transparency. Many of this topic are skeptical, but this is a serious trend that has developed from the end of zero years, went to cruising speed and continues to accelerate. In the next decade, he will continue to develop, and the shares of companies that are implementing ESG practices will be raised over time. Accordingly, those who do not adhere to these practices will To become cheaper. In the West, all investment flows are already changing in this direction, so if you want to be with those who in the long term wins, you need to try to invest in the company and sectors, developing ESG practitioners. “

Nikita Emelyanov, chief assets management ATON

“Trend on ESG really gains momentum. While he did not give much influence on the markets (if you leave ecology behind brackets), but in the future the situation may change. For example, a few years ago it was It was decided not to include in S & P 500 shares of companies with two and more shares. So far, the S & P 500 has not excluded the companies that have already been in it, for example, Facebook and Alphabet, but in 2022 they may well return to this issue (initially for companies such as Facebook and Alphabet have established a period of 5 years, which will end next year). That is, in 2022, we may well discuss the possible exception of Facebook, Alphabet and a few more dozen shares from the index. But even if this does not happen, more and more funds will go to ESG investment. ”

Run “Northern Flow-2” and gas price increase in Europe

Mikhail Gonelin, senior analyst aton

“Surely,” North Stream-2 “will start, despite the hype around the project. Europeans need gas because they have Non-environmental production is closed. Now the gas pipeline certification is being held, which is promised to be completed in March-April 2022. I will add that after meeting Putin and Biden, sanctions against the “Northern Flow” were excluded. Run “Northern Flow” – an important trigger for Gazprom shares, Although the company is still more interesting in its fundamental history (high gas prices, income growth, which Gazprom will broadcast in the growth of dividends). “

Evgeny Malykhin, Head of the Investment Department of the UK” ATON-MANAGE “

” Another point, Which seems to me significant is the beginning of an energy transfer, the refusal of coal generation, which in 2021 led to serious demand for gas. This is an important point for the Russian market, because an understanding has arisen that it is necessary for everything. Pay, if we want to live in an eco-friendly world. Consequently, we, as investors, should choose companies that earn at this. The time they will begin to influence the way of life of the average citizen. Lifestyle, in turn, will affect cash flows: how people will spend money, To which – in my opinion, a very interesting topic for which I will follow in 2022 “.

New events that we do not suspect

Mikhail Morozov, Head of Product Development and Services Athon

” Increasingly Absolutely unexpected events occur. We have already seen oil with a negative value, accustomed that bonds are traded with negative returns, the national assault on the capitol was observed. But some six to seven years ago it was difficult to imagine. No one even thought That the whole world will walk in masks for several years and is located in Lokdauna because of the virus. In 2022, most likely, events will also occur, which now no one predicts. Swans “), you can always put in the first place. After all, it is the most intriguing, and the most frightening. “