Eur/USD rose on Thursday to the resistance level of 1.1045. The exchange rate has been teetering in the price range from 1.1 to 1.11 since the middle of last week.
Many experts predicted an increase in the level of volatility after the Fed meeting. However, this did not happen. The U.S. regulator reduced the rate for the second time this year by 25 points. The head of the Fed said that this will be enough to stimulate the economic development of the United States.
Jerome Powell said that his department is not going to further cut the rate, as the American president wanted. The Federal Reserve's decision did not affect the expectation of the big market players, confident of another rate cut by 25 points in 2019. The head of the Fed said that he allows such actions, but considers them unlikely.
The number of repeated and initial applications for unemployment benefits in America was less than expected. Statistics confirmed that the U.S. labor market is strong, which forced the Fed to raise its forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter. It was 2%. Similar data are expected in the third quarter. The dollar is under short-term pressure against the background of the expected infusion of 75 billion USD. At the same time, in the medium term, the Us monetary unit has an advantage over EUR.
We forecast that on Friday the quotations of this currency pair will fall to support levels of 1.1030, 1.1015 and 1.1000.
THE quotes of GBP/USD rose rapidly on Thursday to resistance at 1.2525 on the background of the statement of the European Commission on receipt of securities containing proposals on the terms of Brexit from The European Commission.
The new proposal is believed to include an alternative to the backstop. Abolition of the latter is considered the main requirement of the British. A new negotiating phase between Stephen Barkley and Michel Bernier is scheduled today. It is noted that the process has recently intensified. Therefore, a positive outcome of the Brexit agreement has become more likely regarding the situation observed six months ago.
Yesterday, the meeting of the Bank of England ended, during which it was decided to keep the rate at the current level and the asset acquisition program. GPB/USD reacted calmly to the results of the event, and grew slightly, despite the weak statistics on retail sales.
The main reason for the growth to the new high since the beginning of July was the news on Brexit, not the publication of macroeconomic indicators. Experts believe that this state of affairs will last until the issue of the UK's exit from the European Union is resolved or until its new postponement. It is noted that the probability of the second option has increased significantly.
We forecast that today the growth of GBP/USD will continue to resistances of 1.2540, 1.2560 and 1.2590.
Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday and reached a key level of 1500 USD. The price of the metal recovered from a weekly low of $1,483. This happened after the publication of the results of the Fed meeting. Despite the fall in the exchange rate on Wednesday, the assets of large ETFs continued to grow in the second half of the week.
The level of volatility of the asset on Thursday was small. This is due to the fact that Japanese, Taiwanese, Swiss and British regulators have kept interest rates at the same value. The asset exchange rate consolidates at $1500 before moving upwards. To date, there are no prerequisites for a reversal of the trend or the beginning of a significant correction.
In the short term, it is possible to reduce the rate to the support level of 1485 USD. Since the beginning of August, the quotes have repeatedly approached this mark, but then there was a reversal in the opposite direction, and the rate moved to resistance of 1500 USD.
At the beginning of October, a new stage of the negotiation process between America and China was announced. This event can exert a little pressure of gold. The correction should be used to purchase an asset at a better price. The chance of a full-fledged treaty between China and America is extremely low. Tensions in the Middle East region are rising, and financial regulators in the leading countries are lowering rates and continuing to pursue soft monetary policies.
We forecast that on Friday gold quotes will grow to resistance of 1503, 1505 and 1510 USD.
On Thursday, WTI crude oil rose slightly in price. It reached $58.30 per barrel. The quotations of this asset rose to 3% after the publication of information regarding the possible purchase of oil by Saudi Arabia from other market participants. For example, the country turned to an Iraqi company to purchase 20 million barrels for its own processing plants. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said supplies of raw materials had already returned to their previous levels and reduced production had recovered by 50%.
The U.S. vice president said it was not yet clear who was behind the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. Initially, the Americans blamed Iran for it. However, the Iranian government denies involvement in the incident.
The threat of a full-scale military conflict in the Middle East region remains real. At the same time, the probability of such a development is low. The growth of oil quotations will not be played back even after the full recovery of production in Saudi Arabia. Now the rate of raw materials has decreased by 50%. At the same time, the rate of decline has slowed down. The probability that WTI quotes will return to the previous level is low. Most likely, the price will be fixed in the corridor from 56.00 to 59.00 USD, in anticipation of further events in the Middle East region.
We forecast that today WTI will probably fall to support at 58.00, 57.70 and 57.40 USD.
Much of the major digital currencies fell in value on Thursday. BTC fell to $10,050 and XRP fell to $0.3020. The exception was ETH, rising in price by 3.5%. The airwaves reached $220. Capitalization of the entire digital coin market was USD 269 billion.
ETH grew against the background of the decline in the value of other electronic currencies, thanks to the initiative to increase the volume of the network block. This measure follows a serious increase in the level of load in the network. The situation was aggravated by The Tether Stebelcoin, who was transferred to the Ether blockchain. Performance enhancement testing is underway. The measures under consideration could lead to a 1/4 improvement in network performance.
The Arab Bank branch in Switzerland has announced its intention to provide btC and ETH trading and storage services to high-capital clients. The partner of this financial institution was the Corporation Taurus Group. It has integrated its cold storage solution with The Arab Bank infrastructure. The Taurus Group said it applied the Federal Data Processing Standard, certified third-level hardware safety modules, and the world's safest hardware.
We forecast that on Friday THE growth of BTC will reach the levels of 10 100, 10 150 and 10 300 USD. It is also possible to strengthen ETH to 222, 225 and 227 USD. XRP is likely to reach 0.3050, 0.3100 and USD 0.3140.