The dollar spread his wings
markets cannot decide on the direction – yesterday the states fell, and today futures are growing powerfully. In Asia, the same uncertainty – from the optimism of Tuesday in Chinese and Hong Kong indices, little is left. The approximation of the FRS verdict at the rate and the risks of the recession of global economies.
in the currency market relative lull, but this is an imaginary calm. In the evening, volatility will make itself felt if Fedi proverv shows determination in the fight against inflation. And this is a positive for the dollar and the factor of currency weakness From the world basket – euro, yen, pound. But the Russian ruble quickly surrendered part of the positions against the background of a huge set of negative factors. Most likely, the weakening of the ruble observed on the eve is only the first act of restoration of invalers.
on raw materials, a slight rollback by the standards of volatility is noted after the rapid rally – the initiative of Western countries to limit Russia for oil and gas leads only to the opposite effect. Demand rises in Asia, prices on hubs are hit by perennial records, and inflation is In the States and the EU, it does not emerge, which means that the rate of the Fed and the ECB will grow. Brent give $ 105, gas in Europe has risen in price to $ 2000, in the USA he updated maximums since 2008.
Russian ruble fulfilled the first goal of weakening after successfully fixing the dollar over the bar 56. The level of 61 was the maximum of Tuesday. By pair USD/RUB – 61.05.
at the same time is striking the comparative dynamics of currencies in terms of their growth. At +4% in the dollar and euro, Chinese yuan gave almost +6%. We have repeatedly noted The relative attractiveness of the national currency as a tool for working out the upcoming weakening of the ruble. As an important factor in the same yuan or the Hong Kong dollar – minimizing geopolitical risks. For example, the closure of trading on the Mosbirzh on Franc and Jena has already happened.
from a technical point of view for the further rise of the American currency, consolidation is required above 61, then the USD/RUB pair will begin to move to the corridor of 65-67 rubles. On the horizon of 2022, the goal of 70 rubles. For the US dollar is confirmed. As for the yuan, the CNY/RUB goal of 10 can be achieved at a leading pace to other invaluates.
US dollar index DXY runs in the field of 107 p. On the eve of the announcement of the Fed’s decision at the rate. Obviously, the regulator will raise the cost of funding, and this is the factor for national vascular. Nevertheless, expectations, not the facts of events, rule the markets. It was on the expectations of toughening the DCP that the dollar grew up the last year, and since the beginning of the year accelerated, since Fedorreterv began the dissolution of his balance and inflated the pace of rise in the key bets.
at the same time there are real risks of dumping the US economy into a recession. A formal criterion – the fall of the country’s GDP two quarters in a row. One is already there, a chance to see and II quarter down is very high. Thus, DXY may still try to go to recent maximums under 110 p., But then it will be problematic.
RGBI government bonds index: 135.78 p. On the eve of testing the minimum of the Covid Marta, a little higher than 136 p. And rolled up. In principle, the reference point up is implemented, and in the current index of the prices of OFZ already The inflation trends and the Central Bank rate in 8%are reflected. The debt market is fully restored and is at the levels of early January.
this does not indicate the beginning of the RGBI fall, but the update potential with current introductory is reduced. After all, the Central Bank can take a pause at the rate to assess the influence of the new value of funding on economic processes and financial markets. The RGBI rollback by 135 p., And then it will be visible by price pressure in the economy.