The indicator of the head of the Federal Customs Service predicted a decrease in bets
Favorite indicator of the head of the Federal Reserve Power Powell gives a signal about the upcoming decrease in bets in the United States. The options market does not believe in the hawk tone of the Fed and relies on the turn of the monetary policy. The dollar has reached its peak, according to Carlyle. UBS does not believe in a decrease in an American. Last week, an inversion arose in the short -term government bonds of the United States. The profitability of three -month treasury notes expected after 18 months fell below the level of their current level. This happened for the first time since the coronavirus crisis of 2020, writes Profinance.
Such a situation means weakness of the economy and is the most accurate indicator of the upcoming reduction in bets, said the head of the Fed Jar Powell in March. Nevertheless, this month, Powell receded somewhat from his March theses, noting that the inversion indicated above may be the result of investors who are waiting for a “significant decrease” of inflation.
Meanwhile, the options market does not believe the Hawk Comments of the Fed and relies on the reversal of politics. Some optional strategies involve A very sharp decrease in the rate by September 2023. The dollar probably reached its peak, since the Fed will slow down the rate of raising bets, according to Carlyle Group. It is expected that the Fed will increase the rates by 50 basic points in December, and then provide a couple more increase before making a pause until the end of March.
the dollar will reach the peak as and when there is more clarity regarding the maximum Fed rate, according to Goldman Sachs. Last Thursday, the President of the Federal Security Service of St. Louis James Bullard joined To other hawk comments of the Fed officials, emphasizing that much has yet to be done to contain inflation, and that the key rate should be increased to at least 5-5.25%. Morgan Stanley expects the dollar to reach the peak in this quarter and will decrease in 2023. On the contrary, UBS predicts the maintenance of the dollar strength due to relatively higher rates in the United States and the demand for assets-refuge. The bank expects EUR/USD to fall to 0.98, and GBP/USD up to 1.13 by June 2023.
“dollar bears fix profit and gain liquidity In front of the new DXY sales wave, which can begin on this or next week from the levels between 108 and 109 and return it to the area below 100 to the end of the year, ”the FXPRO analyst team predicts.
