The volatility in the global foreign exchange market lowered
US dollar expectedly stopped falling, but will complete the year in the field of half -year minimums (DXY: 104.3 p.), Which significantly supported the previously collapsed courses of world reserve currencies. And the Russian ruble does not stop and the day before fell very much. However, the risk limits are still relevant, and the volatility of the market can pump couples in the opposite direction.
Russian ruble exposed to another onslaught yesterday, and the loss of national currency per day amounted to 1.6% against the Hong Kong dollar HKD to 2.7% relative to the Chinese yuan. The euro again tried to rise to 77, and the US dollar closed over 72. Fast correction is invalet after their 20%December take-off. In the moment, the dollar spilled to the obvious support of 67.5 rubles, and Yuan approached 9.5, but then the technical rebound of steam followed.
the volatility of the currency section remains very high. Market participants are trying to find a balance between demand and supply, and after explosive growth of tools, this situation is quite typical. Nevertheless, the jump in foreign currency pairs does not look stable. According to our estimates, the main negative factors, which were previously underestimated by the market, have already been laid in the course. Exports are reduced against the background of reducing energy quotes and the fall of physical volumes after the introduction of the embargo and the western ceiling of prices. Russian response did not convince the market.
imports are restored, and after the spring failure of indicators up to 50% g/g, according to the results of 2022, only 20% can not be read. First of all, the unfriendly western direction is replaced through the expansion of contacts and contracts With the east. The Asian direction becomes a priority, hence the rapid growth in liquidity in the Chinese Yuan, supplanting the share of the toxic dollar and the euro on the Mosbirzh.
in the technique of the US dollar is still in the resistance range of 71-72, and casts above the upper level are considered from the point of view of the speculative component of the auction. It is impossible to exclude the quick Return of USD/RUB to 70.
relative to the Chinese yuan today, the ruble formally rewrote the minimum from December 22, the CNY/RUB pair almost reached 10.3. Strong The resistance area just takes place in the range of 10.3-10.4. The likelihood that Yuan is just as quickly walking to a round mark of 10, high.
