According to the forecast of the National Retail Federation of the Usa, retail sales in the country during the New Year and Christmas holidays will increase by 3.8-4.2% to about 730 billion dollars. This forecast is based on strong data on the labor market in the country. At the same time, retailers have expressed concerns about increased risks associated with trade conflicts, changes in monetary policy and political uncertainty. All these factors can negatively affect consumer sentiment and spending. Consulting company AlixPartners expects this holiday season to increase sales in traditional and online stores by 4.4-5.3% in annual terms. However, the company's experts point to a possible slowdown in sales growth due to the impact of trade duties. They note that despite the negative impact of trade conflicts on the economy, prices for consumers remained unchanged.