Waiting for quotas from OPEC


last week for oil was marked by an impressive fall, as a result of which Brent quotes were again near $ 90 per barrel. The decrease was facilitated by the news of the Locks in China, the threat of tightening the rhetoric of the world Central Bank and the probable return of oil supplies from Iran.

today in the focus will be the next meeting of OPEC+, on which a decision on production quotas for October will be made. The Wall Street Journal reported on the weekend with reference to anonymous sources that the production level OPEC+, most likely, will remain unchanged. Earlier in the media there were hints that the resumption of a nuclear transaction with Iran could lead to a reduction in quotas.

Brent futures are growing up this morning, partially playing out of the last week. The movement looks, rather, technical than due to market expectations. When the sentiment improved in the coming days, quotes can rise above $ 95, but there is no confidence in such a scenario yet.

Rumors around OPEC+

amid news about progress In negotiations on a nuclear transaction between the United States and Iran in the rhetoric of the Mayzhors OPEC, mention of the possibility of reducing production increasingly began to appear. This may mean that the growth of Iranian production by lifting American sanctions can be compensated by the new abbreviations of OPEC+, which will not allow oil prices to fall into a lower trading range.

certainty in the nuclear transaction is not yet. Today, OPEC+ countries will gather to discuss the level of production quotas for October. According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia It opposes the reductions, so the level of quotas can still remain unchanged.

at the same time, the publication refers in some OPEC delegates, which admit that today a symbolic reduction of 100 thousand b/s will be discussed. This volume would not have affected the world balance, but could become a certain political signal from OPEC as a reaction to negotiations on an Iranian transaction.

Book activity in the United States

The number of drilling plants in the United States last week decreased by 9 pcs, to 596 mouth. This was reported by the oilfielder company Baker Hughes, which conducts regular weekly statistics. Judging by the data, American miners again switched to reducing investment in new prey due to fears about a possible recession with a weakening of demand. This inclines to the conservative view of the prospects of shale prey.

EIA awaits that by December 2022, production will reach 12.45 million b/s, and in November 2023 it will exceed 13 million b/s. If drilling activity continues to contract, then these forecasts can be reduced, What increases the likelihood of maintaining deficiency and high prices in 2023. Today, Brent futures grow by 1.4% and are traded at $ 94.3 per barrel.

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