What Russian shares are beneficial a weak ruble. And vice versa

At the end of February 2022, the cost of the currency pair of the dollar / ruble passed for 100 rubles. Such a movement cannot go unnoticed in the stock market. We understand what companies are favorable a weak ruble, and what – no. To measure the effect of the exchange rate per stock, it is worth considering several factors:

The share of exports in the company’s revenue – the more, the more fader the weak ruble costs in the currency – the higher the share, the worse than the company, when the ruble weakens currency obligations – what is higher, Especially profitable companies A strong ruble of

from these parameters will depend on how the change in the exchange rate per shares, financial indicators and even on dividends of companies. Each industry has its own characteristics.

Export sectors

Oil and gas sector

Most petroleum companies, including LUKOIL, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, are exporters. Their income depend on the measurement of the cost of oil in rubles, this indicator grows in the devaluation of the ruble. Similar situation and gas directions: Gazprom, NOVATEK. Transneft paper is also correlated with an oil indicator in rubles, which means that the weak ruble is beneficial.

Special case – privileged shares of Surgutneftegaz. The fact is that the company has many stocks of cache and deposits in dollars. The volume of dividends depends on the revaluation of these funds than the weaker ruble – the better. Ordinary shares dependency on the weak ruble is less noticeable than other companies.

Miners

mining and metallurgical companies are mostly reacting positively to Weak ruble against the background of a high proportion of exports in a common revenue. Among them: Alrosa, NLMK, Severstal, Rusal, Raspadskaya, Polyus Gold, Polymetal, Norilskel.

Severstal over the past 3 years has significantly increased the share of export revenue, which is why the weak ruble is becoming increasingly profitable. A similar situation in MMK, but the company remains more oriented in the domestic market than other stallors.

Weakening of the ruble ambiguous for TMK, since the company has a high debt load, including more 20% – in currency. I dreamed the situation is similar – a high proportion of currency obligations. It is worth noting that the dependence is reduced, since net debt has fallen 1.8 times from the beginning of 2020.

Fertilizers

FOSAGRO, Acron and Uralkali have the largest share of export revenue, which means it is beneficial to the weak ruble. Kuybyshevazot has a smaller share of exports, but it is still significant. It is worth noting that the phosagro has a high proportion of currency loans – about 98%. Consequently, the devaluation of the ruble is not so well affected by the promotions, Like the same acron.

Other sectors

Export revenue of Rusagro last year amounted to about 30% – it means that the weak ruble is more profitable for the company. Revenues of Sovkomflot are expressed in dollars, a weak ruble is preferable.

Not export sectors

Financial sector

Shares of VTB banks, Sberbank, BSPB and ICD practically do not respond to changes in currency exchange rates, and therefore, the effect can be called neutral. Another point is that they are credited exporters, and what is profitable It is beneficial to banks. Therefore, we can say that the weak ruble is partly positive for the banking sector.

Devaluation of the ruble can lead to an increase in the cost of those companies that are focused on the domestic market, but procurement is made from abroad. That is, they will potentially turn into a bank for additional financing in the form of loans for development.

On the Moscow Exchange Changes Changes Changes also affect only indirectly. If there are volatility and big turns in the foreign exchange market – grow Commission income. The devaluation of the ruble leads to an increase in key bet – and this increases the interest income of the exchange.

Energy

Inter RAO, Rosseti, FGC UES, RusHydro and other are mostly focused on the domestic market. The fall of the ruble is neutral for them, since their revenue is ruble, and foreign exchange debts and expenses are insignificant.

Exception – en +, as it has a stake in Rusal and is interested in a weak ruble as exporter. On the contrary, the strengthening of the ruble can affect it negatively, as expenses, Basically, ruble.

Builders

LSR construction companies, peak, standard and aircraft work in the domestic market of Russia. For them, a strong national currency rate is important. This is due to the fact that revenue is ruble, and part of the materials are imported. The increase in the value of the dollar can negatively affect the profitability of the business.

Retailers

M.Video Trading Networks, Children’s World, Ribbon, Magnet, Okay, X5 Retail, Like Builders, are focused on the domestic market. Much of their goods – Imported, and therefore companies are important and strong ruble exchange rate. Less currency liabilities and expenses – a positive moment with a strong ruble. If the changes in the course are minor, then the effect will be minimal.

Telecommunications

Rostelecom and MTS shares are mainly not reacting to changing the exchange rate. However, they are still preferred by a strong ruble. First, the devaluation of the ruble can lead to an increase in costs. Secondly, some equipment is purchased abroad.

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