Will a Brexit deal be struck today? – Forex
Euro-dollar exchange rate
The euro against the dollar strengthened to 1.1080 as of yesterday. U.S. retail sales fell sharply to 0.3% last month, and such figures triggered a drop in the U.S. currency compared to other assets. The EU has presented data on trade balance as of August, which takes into account seasonal fluctuations. The positive balance in these data was 20.3 billion euro
s, which is 1.4 billion euros higher than forecasts. The trend for a long period continues to decline, in the near future there may be a small increase. Current quotes are at the resistance stage, but without much chance of overcoming the zone. ING specialists claim that the euro against the dollar is possible to fall in the boundaries of 1.0500 – 1.1000 for the current year. Such forecasts can set a reversal trend and strengthen the new low price. Low performance of the European economy, as well as the acquisition of securities by representatives of European financial institutions are the main factors influencing the fall of the euro.Our forecast for the European currency against the dollar: strengthening to 1.1100, with further downward trend to 1.1075, 1.1050.
Pound-to-dollar exchange rate
Due to the approach of October 31 and positive forecasts for the outcome of the Brexit agreement, the pound begins to grow. The British currency against the dollar reached the highest level at 1.2850. In the financial market, the quotations increased to the largest figure in the last six months, reaching the level of 1.2880.
The head of the European Council Donald Tusk at yesterday’s speech expressed the opinion that the agreement on Brexit can be concluded today. Moreover, the main talking points of the agreement are prepared, and there is every opportunity to minimize the option of a negative outcome of Brexit. Stephen Barclay of the Secretariat for Britain’s exit from the EU agrees with Donald Tusk’s statement and shares that all projects and documents on Brexit are ready and waiting for a future meeting. Stephen Barclay expressed confidence that the European Union and the United Kingdom will be able to resolve all issues and give legal force to the relevant documents by the end of this month. The parties need to reach an agreement on the outcome of Brexit and agree on compromise ssides before the upcoming summit, which will be held on October 17-18. Otherwise, Britain’s hard exit from the EU is highly likely, and European officials will have to immediately announce a new meeting before the end of the month.On Wednesday, the information on Britain’s consumer inflation for the past month became known. Growth continues to decline to 1.7% year-on-year. These figures do not put pressure on the market as a whole, but at the same time, everything can change if the British side does not reach agreement with European parliamentarians. The fall in inflation will provoke the British Central Bank to lower interest rates, and such a turn will cause a fall in the value of the single currency.Our for
ecast for the value of the pound against the dollar: rise to the indicators of 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.2930.
The price of gold
The price of gold rose to resistance of $1,490 per troy ounce.Th
e U.S. dollar declined due to a decline in retail sales in the United States last month. The quotations are starting to strengthen to support levels of $1,480 per ounce, and there is a good chance that by the end of the week they will reach the figure of 1500 dollars. metals reached their highest volumes last month. Such indicators are noted as a driver of recovery combined with a highly probable decline in global economic data. Economic analysts at Citigroup forecast the gold price to rise to $2,000 an ounce for the next two years. It is expected to rise 34% higher than the current price. Citigroup believes that the positives for gold include a drop in both nominal and real interest rates, as well as high fears about a global downturn and increased conflicts in the geopolitical sector. The same assumptions are made by TD Securities and the British Central Bank, but without a clear time frame for the expected growth to a maximum value of $2,000.Our forecast
for the price of gold: strengthening to the indicators 1492, 1495, 1500 dollars per ounce.
Yesterday, WTI crude oil rose to $53.5 per barrel. Total volumes of financial hedge funds on long-term Brent futures fell to 10% in the first half of this month. The likelihood of a positive outcome of the Agreement between Britain and the EU implies a rise in prices of only 1 dollar from the support level to 52.65. Such basic economic data continue to weaken, which reduces the likelihood of a strengthening market situation. Price policy in the Chinese industry sector has fallen rapidly to three-year levels, and last month’s import figures point to a chance of falling. Reuters surveys showed market participants are forecasting a rise in oil inventories in the United States for five weeks, while the data remain positive.
In early October, Russia reduced oil production under the OPEC agreement by 84% of the quota level. Total production could fall to a daily 1.2 million barrels of output three years ago. The average level of production in Russia reaches 11.23 million barrels per day, which is lower than last month.Our foreca
st for the oil price: strengthening to the mark of 53.75, 54.00, 54.30 dollars per barrel.
Prices in the cryptocurrency market continue to fall. Bitcoin drops to $8,000, Ethereum drops to $175. And XRP reached 28.10 cents. The total capital of the digital currency market fell to $217 billion. On Wednesday, the data on the likely change in the launch date of the TON platform for the year ahead, or by two. The final version can be considered in a week, after a court hearing with representatives of Telegram and the American regulator of financial exchanges and securities. The Commission considers the digital currency Gram to be a security. With that view, the SEC is going to go to court. By this time, Telegram representatives are not going to express their opinion and will not share special data with depositors. At the moment, there are some opportunities to advance the situation. In the event that the court moves to the Commission’s position, TON will open the project after the return of investment to D
epositors from the United States, that is, about a quarter of the total amount of deposits. a great software developer in the global financial markets. As part of the partnership, Finastra customers will have access to RippleNet’s payment system. At the same time, customers will have a “liquidity on demand” function that works on the XRP currency. Ripple project partners have the opportunity to work with the banking institutions that Finastra serves. Prior to that, the company expressed its intentions to create a new product line for financial calculations of decentralization markets, as well as to update current indicators. Our forecast for cryptocurrency: Bitcoin will strengthen to 8050, 8100, 8200 dollars. The Ethereum price range will reach $178, $180, $185. XRP, in turn, will rise to 28.50, 28.80, 29.00 cents.
Australian Federal Reserve Vice President Guy Debel prepares to appear in a report. Representatives of Australia will publish information on full and part-time employment, as well as indicators provided by the National Bank of the country, namely, the index of confidence of participants in the business sector. imports, as well as the cumulative balance of these market factors. The United Kingdom will publish information on retail sales, as well as a report by the British Central Bank on credit conditions. The European side will provide information on the volume of production capacity in the construction sector.The American side presents information on the housing market, data on primary and secondary applications for financial assistance to the unemployed. and production in the industrial sector. Philadelphia calculates data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. Canada will provide data on production volumes as well as data from the ADP project on employment of citizens. Also expected are the speeches of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams and the member of the Board of The Federal Reserve System Michelle Bowman. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is preparing new data on the volume of U.S. natural gas.