Will oil return above $ 90 per barrel
oil prices on Thursday showed positive dynamics, despite a rather alarming information background. Apparently, speculators bought out a drawdown, counting on a wave of recovery. At the same time, fears due to the upcoming economic recession remain the dominant narrative in financial markets. On Thursday, the ECB raised the key rate by 75 BP, simultaneously increasing the forecast for inflation and worsening the economy. The more signals in favor of reducing economic activity in the future, the less stimuli from market participants to bet on oil growth.
Brent futures were limited to restrained growth on Thursday, but today they are once again making an attempt to restore. An important indicator for short -term dynamics can be a retest of a mirror level of $ 90 per barrel. The return above this line can be a good signal for further prices.
Oil reserves in the United States
commercial oil reserves in the United States last week unexpectedly increased by 8.8 million barrels, which even surpassed Issue from SPR in the amount of 7.5 million barrels. The total oil reserves increased by 1.3 million barrels. This became possible due to the growth of pure imports by 1.4 million b/s and a decrease in oil refining by 0.3 million b/s. At the same time, the reserves of gasoline and distillates also grown slightly. The total supply of petroleum products, an indirect demand indicator, was reduced by 180 thousand b/s, to 19.9 million b/s, although gasoline supplies were even slightly grown by 136 thousand b/s, to 8.7 million b/s.
EIA data have a negative color and indicate a weakening of demand. Reuters reports that the Biden administration evaluates the possibility of revising the oil release schedule from SPR. This is negative news for oil, which limited the recovery movement at yesterday’s session and can continue to exert pressure on the quotes before the weekend.
The maximum oil and gas prices
in the EU are discussed on the introduction of maximum prices for Russian oil and gas. The Minister of Energy of Belgium proposed to go even further and limit prices for all gas suppliers. Simultaneously from the Russian side There are statements that the country will not supply energy resources if it considers it unprofitable.
The political factor this year was one of the determining oil prices, so the course of the discussion is important to keep attention in the field. At the moment, it is difficult to evaluate the prospects or consequences of certain decisions of the European Commission, however, the escalation of tension between Russia and the EU is fraught with new interruptions with deliveries and jumps in energy prices.
China continues to fight the COVID-19
in Chinese The city of Chenddu, with a population of 21 million people, was extended for an indefinite period. At the moment, 16 out of 23 districts of the city remain on quarantine. The policy of zero tolerance for the COVID-19, which suggests a hard Lockdown with the slightest jump in the incidence, has been pressure on the Chinese economy since March of this year. Earlier this week, China reported on weak trading indicators, which was negatively perceived in the raw materials markets. Extension of anti -icing restrictions can lead to a further slowdown in business activity In the country, the second largest oil consumer in the world. Today, Brent futures grow by 0.6% and are traded at $ 88.5 per barrel.
