Euro-dollar exchange rate
Euro-dollar quotations resume after record lows over the past two years, reaching 1.0930. The chart of formation of the rate has already been established for this year: first the currency reaches a minimum, then slightly strengthens to reach a new low.
The new low reached 1.0880, and then strengthened to 1.0900. Inflation slightly stops the desire upwards by 0.9%, this figure is lower than the forecasts from the Central Bank of 2%. The ratio of such low rates to a pair of euro/dollar is minuscule, but can also have a long-term impact on the slow development of consumer prices.
The single currency strengthened due to good business activity in manufacturing in Europe and, in particular, Germany. Last month was marked by strong indicators. But the general background of the economic situation in the EU is still unstable: the German side is preparing for a technical fall, and the Central Bank is going to loosen monetary policy. The euro is also directly affected by the situation with Brexit, and new import prices from America to the European car market.
Changes in quotes are planned minor. The mark is expected at 1.0960 with further parameters at 1.1030, 1.1100. The nearest drop will remain to the level of 1.0800.
The forecast from us for the euro to the dollar is this: strengthening to 1.0950, 1.0970, 1.1000.
Pound-to-dollar exchange rate
The pound/dollar pair remains almost at the same level, reaching the quotations of 1.2300, the previous level reached 1.2210.
British business activity unexpectedly strengthened: the index reached 48.3. Such indicators have a positive impact on the British currency, although the situation with the exit from the EU still keeps in suspense. The parties are waiting for the date of October 31, because that is when Britain’s fate in the EU should be decided. A difficult exit can lead to increased volatility in the trading sector. Barclays forecasts a fall of between 1.100 and 1.1500. It is not yet clear whether the country is waiting for such a situation, or whether Brexit will be resolved more leniently.
The head of the British government is preparing versions on the decision of Brexit, which will show representatives of the EU. Boris Johnson has put forward the option of organizing an economic zone in Ireland where retail goods and agricultural products can be sold indefinitely. At the same time, it is necessary to develop rules of customs for other goods that will take place on the Irish line with Northern Ireland. European representatives are expected to react, analysts predict increased market volatility.
If Europe does not accept Johnson’s proposal, the September law will come into force. And then the prime minister needs to talk about a new deadline for Brexit by October 19.
Forecast from us for pound to dollar: rise to 1.2310, 1.2330, 1.2360.
The price of gold
According to yesterday’s indicators, gold strengthened to 1480 dollars per ounce. The price of gold reached the lowest level since August to 1460 dollars. The quotes are starting to go up.
The American ISM index for production provoked a market turn. The index reached a ten-year low, stopping at 47.8. The FEDERAL Reserve may lower interest rates, causing the industry sector to fall. The market is forecastto contract by half by the end of the year, as well as the unstable situation in the manufacturing sector and the employment market, and the fall in inflation.
Charles Evans, the Federal Reserve’s Chicago governor, says the inflation rate is 2 percent, given the current rates. This year, the U.S. cut rates in half and made a revaluation of the credit sector. The political situation in the world, namely the trade conflict with China and the decline in monetary spending causes an economic decline. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank says that the fall in rates will not play into the hands of the economic situation, but its rise reaches 1.75%.
There is a chance that gold will rise by 1550 dollars. This will happen when the influence of the US president will affect the fall in the Fed’s rates.
Our forecast for the gold price: strengthening to 1482, 1485, 1490 dollars per ounce.
Yesterday, oil fell to $53.90 per barrel. The quotations fell to the lowest level since the Saudis attacked raw materials stocks.
Oil stocks fell to 7.5 percent, the biggest decline of the year. The quotations are falling due to the trade war between China and America. Reuters reports that commodity prices will be fixed before the end of the year, thanks to the situation in politics, a negative outlook is unlikely.
By the end of the year, Ecuador is going to leave OPEC due to the difficult financial situation and the need to reduce costs and strengthen revenues. The amount of raw materials in Ecuador reaches 8.3 billion barrels, and daily production – 0.5 million barrels.
Rumor has it that an OPEC-type oil production regulator may soon emerge. The creators are saudis and Russians. In this regard, there are thoughts that Ecuadorians are simply looking for other opportunities instead of OPEC.
Our forecast for the oil price: strengthening WTI to 54.00, 54.25, 54.50 dollars per barrel.
Bitcoin’s growth reached $8,330, and Ethereum fell to $176. XRP strengthened to 25.00 cents. The total capital of the market is estimated at 221 billion dollars.
Binance Research speculates that the fall of Bitcoin was due to unsuccessful futures operations in the Bakkt market. The opening was unsuccessful, although we expected the best performance. The main digital currency fell to $8,000, but then began to strengthen. The new Bakkt market can be the impetus for a positive perception of cryptocurrency as a whole in later periods.
Swiss stock markets are launching a project that will help create and conduct asset tokenization operations. The project will be called SDX and by 2020 it is expected to launch shares for tokenization. The company is waiting for investors, and this directly correlates with the launch date. SDX has its own blockchain, and this will help to make actions on trading exchanges. As for the countries that are committed to the digital currency, Switzerland is leading here. Germans and The French are skeptical of the market.
Our forecast for cryptocurrency: strengthening Bitcoin to 8400, 8450, 8500 dollars. Ethereum will rise to $178, $180, $185. XRP rose to 25.30, 25.60, 26.00 cents.
The Japanese are preparing to present a fresh index of consumer confidence.
The Swiss side will publish the consumer price index. England will report on business activity for the construction business.
The ADP index is also expected to be released, which will tell about the busy population for private business in the United States, as well as the ISM indicator of business conditions in New York. Reports from Federal Reserve board members in Chicago and New York, namely Charles Evans and John Williams, are scheduled to be presented.